Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa back to the show. Tavi Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital. Tavi outlines a bullish macro view for precious metals, arguing that the recent sell-off in gold and silver presents a compelling accumulation opportunity within a secular bull market. He notes that gold itself is down 25 to 30 percent, while quality producers have corrected 40 to 50 percent, leaving them technically oversold. He favors large, well-established miners such as Agnico Eagle and Newmont as liquid ways to play this window over the next six to twelve months. Silver is also in an accumulation phase, though he cautions against fixating on a single price entry point. Copper, which has remained resilient near all-time highs, is expected to surge dramatically once current headwinds fade, offering significant operating leverage in the mining equities.

Costa emphasizes the strategic role of energy in a resource portfolio, describing it as an efficient hedge for metals investors. He highlights the historically low weighting of energy in the S&P 500 and points to structural demand drivers like data centers, electrification, and onshoring. Natural gas, in his view, is the only near-term solution to meet this demand, given the longer timelines for nuclear or renewables. He sees opportunities in midstream assets and in Latin America, where excess energy supply could attract strategic partnerships. The conversation also touches on agricultural commodities, which Costa believes are consolidating in a pattern similar to oil before its breakout.

Regarding critical minerals, Costa expresses skepticism, calling the sector a “disease” marked by misallocated capital. He warns that institutional money chasing small markets like rare earths often overlooks poor business fundamentals, and he advises focusing instead on copper, gold, and silver, which offer clear structural demand and supply constraints. He distills his investment approach into three pillars: metals and mining, energy, and Latin America. Costa is currently in the process of launching a fund and shares his research on Substack, with a formal announcement expected soon.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:29 – Current Market Opportunities
00:01:04 – Gold and Silver Outlook
00:02:53 – Finding Quality Opportunities
00:06:55 – Oil & Gas Potential
00:09:30 – Natural Gas Demand Drivers
00:12:07 – Critical Minerals
00:14:50 – Copper Highs & Outlook
00:17:17 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/tavicosta
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/otavio-tavi-costa-76368628
Substack: https://tavicosta.substack.com

Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. He invented a macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.

His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.