Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doomberg to the show. Doomberg is the Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and the Creator of the Doomberg Substack. Doomberg analyzes the escalating geopolitical risks following the significant damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a critical artery for crude oil exports. He argues that while the initial closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not cause the expected price shock, the pipeline attack pushes an already stressed system into a red zone, with Brent crude nearing demand destruction levels. The core risk, however, extends beyond oil flows.

Doomberg describes Arab Gulf states as metastable constructs propped up by the illusion of U.S. military hegemony. The rapid territorial gains by the Houthis in Yemen represent a potential catalyst for a sudden collapse of this perceived stability, where the common knowledge that a regime is weak can trigger rapid, systemic change. He suggests the possibility of a Saudi leadership crisis, such as MBS fleeing, is a low-probability but enormously consequential event that markets may be underpricing.

The discussion shifts to the war in Ukraine, where Doomberg predicts a devastating Russian strike on energy infrastructure, citing public Russian military orders and U.S. intelligence warnings. He notes that attacks on refineries paradoxically cap crude oil prices while causing diesel crack spreads to explode, as refineries are the sole customers for crude. This dynamic, combined with refineries running at dangerous capacity, creates acute tightness in refined products.

Doomberg emphasizes that in conflicts, victory often belongs to the side with higher pain tolerance, and he assesses that Iran and the Houthis can endure far more hardship than Western consumers. He warns that the convergence of these crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside reckless rhetoric from NATO-aligned nations, creates a genuine risk of uncontrollable global escalation.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:54 – Saudi Pipeline Attack Analysis
00:03:12 – Metastable Gulf States Risks
00:09:53 – Houthi Advances and Maps
00:20:40 – Russia Ukraine Energy Strikes
00:27:48 – Pain Tolerance in Wars
00:34:09 – Refineries and Crack Spreads
00:43:57 – China Oil Demand Shifts
00:46:10 – Alberta Natural Gas Outlook
00:47:17 – The Doomberg Substack

Guest Links:
Substack: https://doomberg.substack.com
X: https://x.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.com

Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.