Rory Johnston: ‘Ragingly Tight’ Diesel Markets, Skyrocketing Inflation & The Escalating Iran War
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, joins Palisades Gold Radio to dissect the current energy crisis. He argues that while the market has avoided outright shortages in the West, the war has created a “balkanized” global oil market. The primary issue is not just crude supply, but a severe crisis in refining capacity, particularly for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel. Diesel crack spreads have hit unprecedented levels (near $100-$120 a barrel), driven by a combination of the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. This has led to a million to 1.5 million barrels per day loss in diesel supply, with emerging markets like Indonesia feeling the pain of outright shortages first.
Johnston highlights the compounding effect of skyrocketing shipping costs, which have risen tenfold due to the inefficient “dark transit” system in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels. This has fractured the global market into isolated pockets of oversupply and undersupply, making it expensive to arbitrage regional imbalances. He is skeptical of political fixes, dismissing the Trump-Putin diesel deal as a “drop in the bucket” (roughly 125,000 barrels per day) and warning that a US diesel export ban would be counterproductive, as it would reduce refining incentives and spike global prices. The only durable solutions, he argues, are ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Looking ahead, Johnston sees a potential scenario where crude prices fall (even to $60) while diesel remains expensive ($150-$160) due to lingering refining constraints. He notes that the market is still in a deficit of 2-3 million barrels per day, drawing down stockpiles, but believes a resolution to the Iran war could flip crude into oversupply. A key wildcard is China, which could loosen its export quotas and provide critical diesel supply through the winter, as it did in 2022-2023. He also flags that a “Super El Nino” could provide a lucky reprieve by moderating winter demand for heating fuels.
Timestamps
00:00:29 – Introduction: Rory Johnston on energy crisis
00:00:41 – Assessing Middle East supply disruptions
00:01:28 – Impact of high prices on emerging markets
00:02:26 – Shipping rates surge and tanker inefficiency
00:05:20 – Iran attacks on tankers and fleet impact
00:09:56 – Refining capacity crisis and product tightness
00:15:19 – US-Russia diesel deal and export ban debate
00:20:05 – Ukraine refinery attacks and energy truce
00:24:44 – Outlook: product tightness vs crude recovery
00:30:57 – Demand destruction through diesel prices
00:35:36 – Escalation risks and stock drawdowns
00:39:22 – Saudi Arabia’s challenges and Houthi attacks
00:43:03 – Natural gas and LNG market tightness
00:44:46 – Wrap-up and where to follow Rory’s work
Links
About the Guest
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).
Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.