Josef Schachter, author and president of the Schachter Energy Report, joins Palisades Gold Radio to assess the global energy system amid shifting Middle East geopolitics. Despite ongoing conflict, crude flows out of the Persian Gulf are running above pre-war levels—Saudi Arabia is even discounting barrels into Asia—yet refined products tell a different story. LNG, sulfur, nitrogen, and fertilizer exports remain constrained, and diesel shortages persist as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries remove key supply from global markets.

Schachter outlines three scenarios for the Iran conflict and assigns rough probabilities: a durable peace deal (30%), a limited air campaign that resolves nothing (roughly one-third), and a wider regional war (roughly one-third). With WTI near $97 and Brent near $105, he estimates $22–$25 per barrel of risk premium is priced in against an equilibrium value of roughly $75. A credible peace deal, in his view, could take another $20–$25 off crude—but he cautions that restocking strategic reserves, rebuilding damaged infrastructure, and restoring commercial inventories will take time, delaying rather than derailing the commodity super cycle he expects to run into the mid-2030s.

On equities, Schachter argues energy stocks are discounting $70 oil while cash flow multiples of 2–3x sit well below proved developed producing reserve values—a classic cycle-bottom setup. He explains his framework for evaluating producers, the criteria he applies to entrepreneurial names (management track record, large land positions, infrastructure access, and supportive jurisdictions), and why Canadian producers offer cheaper entry points and greater drilling inventory than U.S. peers. He also covers natural gas, where growing LNG export capacity and data-center power demand could unlock higher prices, and outlines where investors can find his research and buy-signal alerts.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction and Middle East war outlook
00:00:46 – Energy system: crude flows vs product shortages
00:04:54 – US election impact on markets and Iran policy
00:06:32 – Saudi production, diesel shortage, refinery issues
00:08:49 – Logistics, restocking, and commodity super cycle
00:15:19 – Escalation scenario: oil at $120-130 and risks
00:21:26 – Refinery damage and Persian Gulf escalation risks
00:24:07 – Odds of peace vs war and oil risk premium
00:27:16 – War delays super cycle; demand and restocking
00:29:12 – Long-term commodity bull market until 2034-36
00:36:14 – Buying the dip: integrated vs small producers
00:38:01 – What to look for in entrepreneurial explorers
00:42:00 – Natural gas stocks, LNG exports, power demand
00:45:11 – Where to find research and closing remarks

Links

• https://schachterenergyreport.ca

About the Guest

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Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.

Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.

Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.

Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.