Dale Pinkert: Debt is Crushing the System
Tom welcomes a new guest Dale Pinkert to the show. Dale is an experienced commodity and FX trader. He is also head of trader development at Trade Gate Hub.
Dale discusses the importance of gathering ‘intelligence’ in trading and questioning your own beliefs. It’s important to manage emotions and practice risk management. Stops are important for those occasions where you’re wrong, and the best traders use them diligently. If you don’t know why you’re getting into the market you shouldn’t be doing it.
He explains how all markets are manipulated, and no one complains when there is a bull market. The Fed can’t print commodities so Fed policies will have little effect. Instead, Jay Powell should pray for rain.
The debt burden means we can’t survive much of a tightening cycle. Dale will be surprised if the Fed can get rates to three percent. It won’t take much to topple a system that is so top-heavy with debt.
The strength of the dollar hasn’t impacted the metals market that much. The long dollar trade is quite a crowded trade. We could be looking at a new low for the Euro and a top for the dollar. Every major bottom in silver can be matched with a top in the dollar. We need a bear market in the dollar for silver to move.
The U.S. might not be the best currency any longer. Some of our key market structures appear broken, and therefore the dollar may no longer be the cleanest dirty shirt. Dale believes a rally in metals is coming.
Tom discusses the risks in the housing market and how things have changed since 2008. Mortgage rates are climbing, and risks are increasing. FOMOing into buying a house seems like a dangerous idea.
Tom and Dale discuss how market tops often come with
clear signs like ads on the television for crypto or real estate.
Lastly, Dale gives some excellent advice for new investors learning to trade.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Importance of learning and gathering ‘intelligence’ from others.
- Why the debt situation will limit the Fed’s ability to act.
- Anticipating where the Dollar and Euro may head from here.
- Why the U.S. dollar might not be the best currency any longer.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
2:10 – Managing Risks
8:10 – Metals Manipulation?
10:07 – Debts, Rates, & The Fed
13:20 – Dollar Strength
15:18 – Macro Factors
17:40 – Devil Advocacy
20:22 – Bond Yields
22:47 – Risk-On Trades
29:41 – Equity Sell-Off & Metals
32:03 – Timeframes & Evidence
33:56 – Picking Miners
37:55 – Copper Outlook
40:44 – Housing Markets?
46:50 – Market Top Signposts
48:12 – Volatility & Opportunity
51:14 – Wrap Up
Dale is head of trader development at Trade Gate Hub and also the Host of Face.
Dale began his career in operations on the CME floor for Dean Witter when they traded currency futures on chalkboards. He became a licensed Series 3 broker in 1976 and went on to own and operate Pinkert Commodities GIB. He became a Member of the CME (IOM) Division for a stint, and his forecasts have been aired on many Financial media including CNBC.
Dale has Coached/Mentored retail and prop traders and has gained a solid reputation for his work on the other side of the mic having interviewed over 700 of the best of the best in Trading.