Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Hunter to the show. David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. Hunter presents a deeply contrarian outlook, arguing that the extreme bearishness in the bond market signals a major bottom in bonds and a top in interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury. He believes the current narrative of an inescapable fiscal trap and higher rates is already priced in, and he expects oil prices to roll over into the $60 range, contributing to a downside surprise in inflation as the economy slows.

Despite this, Hunter maintains a near-term bullish stance on equities, forecasting a final, euphoric melt-up that could push the S&P 500 to 10,000 within months. He notes the unusual phenomenon of all-time highs in major indices coinciding with subdued or bearish investor sentiment, which he views as supportive of further gains. However, this rally represents the terminal phase of a 44-year secular bull market.

Hunter predicts this will culminate in a historic global bust, a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008-2009, driven by extreme global leverage and derivatives. He anticipates an 80% decline in equities, with policymakers initially reluctant to deploy massive stimulus, causing a severe air pocket.

Following this bust, Hunter outlines a subsequent cycle where massive money printing triggers hyperinflation. This environment will fuel an explosive, multi-year bull market in commodities, with gold potentially reaching $20,000 and silver $1,000 by the early 2030s. He sees the precious metals mining sector as exceptionally undervalued, poised for a tremendous run as institutional investment flows in, supported by disciplined management and strong earnings.

Hunter’s long-term thesis concludes with a final systemic collapse in the mid-2030s when hyperinflation renders further money printing impossible.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:59 – Treasury Market and Yields
00:02:20 – Contrarian Bond Market View
00:04:40 – Oil Prices Roll Over
00:10:29 – Inflation Peaking and Softening
00:12:10 – Equity Markets Bullish Outlook
00:17:52 – Impending Global Economic Bust
00:35:39 – Gold and Silver Performance
00:47:29 – Mining Stocks Opportunities
00:52:24 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian

David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.