Stijn Schmitz welcomes Florian Grummes to the show. Florian Grummes is the Founder and Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting. Florian remains bullish on oil and gas, viewing energy equities as still undervalued despite recent price consolidation. He anticipates a severe oil price shock by late summer or early autumn, driven by ongoing supply disruptions from Middle East tensions, critically low inventories, and a disconnect between Western paper markets and physical demand. He notes that while demand destruction may eventually occur, the immediate risk is a sharp price spike as shortages intensify.

Florian also warns that the AI-driven stock market bubble is nearing a peak, comparing it to past speculative manias, and expects a significant correction that could trigger a liquidity crunch. This environment complicates the Federal Reserve’s position, as it cannot easily lower interest rates amid persistent inflation and may even be forced to raise them, further stressing the economy. In precious metals, Florian sees gold in a secular bull market, driven by its role as a neutral reserve asset and ongoing central bank buying.

However, he notes that gold and silver are currently in a correction phase, with silver potentially pulling back toward the $50 level before the next leg up. He remains a long-term silver bull due to its industrial and monetary demand, but cautions that short-term pain is likely. Mining stocks have sold off sharply, with sentiment extremely bearish. Florian advises patience, waiting for signs of capitulation and contrarian buy signals before aggressively adding positions. He emphasizes the importance of quality companies and recommends holding cash-flow-generating dividend payers, particularly in oil, to weather potential market turmoil. Overall, he sees a complex, volatile period ahead, but believes the longer-term trends for commodities and precious metals remain intact.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:20 – Oil and Gas Equities Outlook
00:03:45 – Oil Bull Market Analysis
00:06:10 – Middle East Supply Disruptions
00:10:05 – Impending Oil Price Shock
00:13:50 – Energy Market Resilience?
00:15:00 – Specific Interesting Plays
00:17:20 – AI Bubble and Market Risks
00:21:52 – Fed Rates and Inflation Pressures
00:27:08 – Gold Role in Debasement
00:36:00 – Remonitization of Metals?
00:39:45 – Thesis Around Silver
00:43:05 – Gold Miners & GDX
00:48:42 – Quality Miners & Uncertainty
00:51:05 – Midas Touch Consulting

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.midastouch-consulting.com
X: https://twitter.com/FlorianGrummes
Substack: https://substack.com/@midastouchconsulting
Telegram: https://t.me/MidasTouchConsulting
Free Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/d5Euf
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/floriangrummes/
Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/florian-grummes
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Midastouchconsulting

Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, mentor, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets. 

Florian is the founder and managing director of his company Midas Touch Consulting, which is specialized in trading & investments as well as consulting, analysis & research with a focus on precious metals, commodities and digital assets.

Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing daily and weekly gold, silver, bitcoin & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental/macro and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets.