Lyn Alden: US Fiscal Policy Reactions are Creating Best Case Scenario for Gold and Silver
Tom welcomes a new guest Lyn Alden to the program. Lyn’s finds her background in engineering useful when examining markets and uncovering feedback mechanisms. She discusses the different debt bubbles and how they have only grown over the past decade.
The US congressional budget office has failed to take recessions into account in their projections. As a result, we have already hit debt levels they were not expecting for another five to ten years.
Longterm Lyn expects the dollar to decline based on it’s historical cycles. Commodities, including gold, are at historically cheap levels, and the recent sell-off in commodities has made oil and copper more attractive.
Gold appears fairly valued currently, but the trend is going higher. Periods of negative or low bond yields are perfect environments for gold, and most investors still have little or no exposure to gold.
Silver could easily outperform in part because it’s such a small market. Any inflows could have outsized effects on the price. If there is an explosion in electric vehicle sales, we could see silver and the base metals used in the electrical grid move much higher.
This is an excellent environment for gold and other scarce assets.
Time Stamp References:
0:40 – Studying markets and feedback loops.
2:00 – Debt bubbles today and growth.
6:20 – US Budget projections didn’t consider recessions.
7:20 – US dollar overview soverign/corporate debt.
10:50 – Expectations for a lower US dollar.
13:10 – Valuations and allocating capital.
15:15 – Commodities at historic lows.
17:50 – Gold versus interest rates and yields.
22:30 – Comparing PM’s to the rest of the market.
23:40 – Central banks gold holdings and Russia.
26:45 – What she invests in the gold market.
28:48 – Silver raio and silvers future performance.
32:00 – Thoughts on Tesla and commodities in an EV world.
33:30 – Predictions for coming years.
Talking Points From This Episode
• Debt bubbles and Fed swap lines.
• Expect a long-term dollar decline.
• Gold is still early in the bull market cycle.
• Silver should outperform, and why base commodities could do well.
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlen.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or experienced, there’s a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor’s Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.