Michael Every argues that the current geopolitical landscape is defined by a single, multi-front conflict between the US and China, with the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine serving as key battlegrounds. He predicts a re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict immediately after the US midterm elections, viewing it as a deliberate US strategy to destabilize global energy and commodity supply chains. The core objective, he suggests, is not necessarily to seize resources, but to create a “two-speed” world where the US and its allies have cheaper, more reliable access to critical inputs like oil, LNG, and food, while adversaries like China face far higher costs and logistical hurdles.

A surprising data point Every highlights is the massive divergence in global oil prices. While Brent crude futures may sit around $115, the actual cost of a barrel of Middle Eastern crude delivered to Shanghai can be as high as $150 due to war risk insurance, longer shipping routes around Africa, and a shortage of tankers. In contrast, Canadian crude delivered to the US via pipeline costs roughly $70. This deliberate fragmentation of commodity markets, he argues, is a powerful, underappreciated tool of US statecraft, mirroring China’s dominance in rare earths. He also notes that shipping a barrel from the Persian Gulf to Asia now costs $20-30, up from a normal $2-3, illustrating the extreme tightness in refined product markets.

The key actionable takeaway for investors and businesses is to prepare for a world of “higher for longer” inflation and interest rates, driven by the expensive process of rearmament, reindustrialization, and supply chain restructuring. Every advises against assuming a return to the free-flowing, low-cost global economy of the past. He is skeptical of a return to a gold standard, arguing that governments will need “soft money” to finance this expensive geopolitical competition. Instead, he recommends focusing on resilience, diversification, and understanding that physical resources and supply chain control are the ultimate sources of power in this new era.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Hormuz Attacks Spike Shipping Costs
00:00:44 – War with Iran: Imminent Restart?
00:03:48 – Why Not Preemptive Strike?
00:05:09 – Conflict Drivers: US-China Cold War
00:09:21 – US-China Power Dynamics
00:12:15 – Demographics: Least Dirty Shirt
00:16:44 – Ukraine: Another Front of Same War
00:20:41 – Resources as Power Leverage
00:23:29 – Iran War: Resource Control or Weaponization?
00:26:31 – Energy Tightness and Price Disparities
00:31:51 – US Leverage: Oil, LNG, Copper, Agriculture
00:35:02 – Fertilizers and Sulfur Supply Gaps
00:36:26 – Escalation: Air Campaign or Ground Troops?
00:38:29 – Targeting Energy and Desalination Plants
00:40:02 – Merging Wars: Ukraine and Middle East
00:43:24 – East Asia Flashpoints and Tail Risks
00:45:25 – Implications for Life, Business, and Investing
00:50:00 – Gold’s Role in a Fragmented World
00:55:50 – Follow Michael Every’s Work

Links

• https://www.rabobank.com/
• https://hk.linkedin.com/pub/michael-every/14/832/389
• https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery

About the Guest

Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank. He analyses major financial developments and contributes to the bank’s various economic research publications for internal and external customers and to the media.

Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.

Michael holds a Masters degree in Economics (with distinction) from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai.