Stijn Schmitz welcomes Mining Stock Monkey to the show. The discussion centers on navigating the current commodity cycle with a disciplined, downside-protection-first approach. He emphasizes that while structural tailwinds like electrification, AI infrastructure, and global poverty reduction support a broad commodities bull market, selectivity is critical. He starts by identifying historically cheap commodities—where low prices eventually cure low prices by curbing supply and boosting demand—and then evaluates individual companies on their risk-reward profiles. Nickel tops his list, but he exclusively seeks high-grade nickel-sulfide deposits, avoiding laterite projects due to severe environmental and human rights concerns in Indonesia. Potash also appears cheap, with BHP’s delayed and over-budget Jansen mine potentially discouraging new supply; he notes producers like Nutrien and Mosaic, though he favors royalty exposure through Altius Minerals.

In oil and gas, equities are undervalued at spot prices, but the futures curve points to a sharp decline, making him cautious. He prioritizes protecting against large losses, explaining that avoiding a 75% drop is far more valuable than chasing outsized gains. On precious metals, he views the gold bull market as mature after a decade-long run, yet acknowledges that endless money printing and the weaponization of the dollar could drive prices infinitely higher. He is reducing exposure to riskier gold miners and favors royalty companies like Royal Gold, citing its superior margins, built-in growth, relative undervaluation, and potential S&P 500 inclusion as key downside protections.

Silver, however, raises concerns: a parabolic chart pattern and the fact that over a billion rural Asians hold silver as savings could trigger massive selling if they cash in on recent price spikes, potentially flooding the market. He also briefly notes that thermal coal’s chart resembles a classic bottoming pattern worth investigating.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:06 – Commodities Bull Market Outlook
00:03:40 – Identifying Cheap Commodities
00:06:37 – Attractive Commodities Nickel Oil
00:08:08 – Oil Equities and Supply Risks
00:09:50 – Downside Protection Strategy
00:16:03 – Potash Market Analysis
00:21:44 – Nickel Sulphide Deposits
00:25:40 – Gold Markets Currently
00:30:52 – Miners & Risk/Reward
00:36:12 – Finding Value In Miners
00:42:07 – Junior Explorers & Developers
00:47:05 – Silver Market Thoughts
00:53:57 – Thermal Coal
00:54:48 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@MiningStockMonkey
Website: https://miningstockmonkey.com/products/vip
X: https://x.com/miningstockguy
Substack: https://miningstockmonkey.substack.com

Jordan is an independent resource investor and the founder of Mining Stock Monkey. He shares his personal portfolio, dynamic valuation models, and in-depth research with a growing audience of serious investors.

His approach is uncompromisingly independent: no corporate sponsors, no investment banking fees, and no hidden agendas. Jordan invests his own capital and transparently shares exactly what he is buying and selling, along with the proprietary valuation models and research that drive his decisions.

If you’re an asset manager, family office, or high-net-worth investor looking for authentic, high-conviction resource opportunities, you can access Jordan’s real-time portfolio and join a private community of like-minded investors here: https://miningstockmonkey.com/products/vip