Stijn Schmitz welcomes Peter Carlin to the show. Peter Carlin is Commodity Broker, Trader, and Author. The discussion opens with the extreme volatility in global energy markets, where the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions are creating severe logistical bottlenecks. Carlin explains that the real crisis is not crude oil supply per se, but a mismatch between the sour crude grades needed by Western refineries and the sweet crude that is more readily available.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being heavily drawn down, particularly its sour component, to feed refineries and supply Europe, while refinery utilization rates in America are running unsustainably high, threatening system integrity. He notes that the situation is fluid and that any return to normal is unlikely; the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted, with the US military presence in the Gulf diminished and Iran successfully exporting oil to China, settling in renminbi via alternative payment systems.

The conversation shifts to gold and currencies. Carlin observes that gold’s recent price action is linked to the apparent disappearance of a distressed seller in the Gulf, now that loadings have resumed. He sees the yen’s weakness as a key barometer for gold, arguing that intervention cannot save the Japanese currency, and a sovereign debt crisis there would trigger contagion, driving investors toward gold and equities. He advises against chasing strength and recommends buying gold on weakness, cautioning that the public tends to do the opposite.

Silver, while volatile, remains a leveraged play on fear but requires extreme caution due to professional traders dominating the market. Finally, Carlin shares the story behind his book, “A Pocketbook of Gold,” co-authored with the legendary Jim Sinclair, who famously called the 1970s gold bull market and the 2011 peak. The book, now available as a PDF, distills Sinclair’s trading wisdom and serves as a survival manual for monetary turmoil. Carlin emphasizes the importance of disciplined, patient trading over speculative home runs, a lesson drawn from decades of market experience.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:10 – Gulf Conflict and Hormuz
00:03:42 – Oil Logistics and Shipping
00:09:27 – Shale & Refining & SPR
00:14:07 – Economic Picture & Supply
00:19:20 – Geopolitical Shifts in Gulf
00:24:14 – Gold Devaluation Strategy
00:27:10 – Trading Crude Oil Markets
00:30:20 – Chinese Payment Systems
00:35:15 – Yen Intervention and Debt
00:43:40 – Debasement & Markets
00:51:12 – Silver Thesis
00:54:30 – Pocketbook of Gold

Guest Links:
Book: https://www.apocketbookofgold.com/

Peter D. Carlin has spent the past 20 years as a commodity broker and trader, having worked for such firms as ICAP, NatSource Tullett and Eurobrokers. He has also worked as a consultant for several multinationals in the field of energy risk management. As a journalist, Mr. Carlin has written for the Financial Times and Bloomberg and has published articles for Jane’s Defence, Money Week and numerous other journals. He regularly appears on the BBC, CNN, and NBC as a commentator.