Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and is the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. The discussion opens with a vivid illustration of emerging fuel shortages, as Trader Ferg shares images of long queues at his local petrol station in Bali, a symptom of diesel and product tightness spreading across Asia. He argues that governments avoid admitting scarcity, instead running down strategic reserves, but this dynamic sets the stage for a prolonged “big refill” cycle that will keep crude and refined products tight for years. He cautions that markets are complacently expecting a quick resolution, while the reality points to sustained supply constraints.

Trader Ferg highlights the investment opportunity in underappreciated energy equities, favoring high-quality, cash‑generating companies with strong shareholder yields, such as Shell, over direct commodity futures. He extends this thesis to thermal coal, which he sees benefiting from Asia’s energy security pivot and substitution away from expensive LNG, supported by supply disruptions and a lack of new investment. The conversation then shifts to gold and precious metals. Trader Ferg remains a long‑term gold bull given the deteriorating US fiscal position, but he emphasizes the importance of diversifying into platinum and palladium. PGMs offer tighter supply dynamics, concentrated production in South Africa, and resilient demand from hybrid vehicles, making them less vulnerable to government confiscation risks that could threaten gold.

Throughout, Trader Ferg stresses aligning investment vehicles with long‑term theses, seeking cheap valuations with double‑digit shareholder yields, and avoiding obvious political targets. He notes the non‑consensus nature of energy trades and the potential for explosive moves in compressed markets like coal and uranium. The episode concludes with a nod to frontier market opportunities and a reminder to position ahead of policy desperation, as governments may increasingly resort to windfall taxes and capital controls.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:30 – Fuel Shortages in Asia
00:02:30 – Rationing and Demand Control
00:03:48 – Strategic Reserves Refill
00:06:36 – Product Shortages Spread West
00:10:34 – Sponsor Message
00:11:22 – Energy Investment Opportunities
00:14:20 – Non-Consensus Long-Term Views
00:16:48 – Playing via Equities Quality
00:21:06 – Shareholder Yield Strategy
00:23:32 – Thermal Coal Asia Thesis
00:28:13 – Gold and US Fiscal Risks
00:44:20 – Platinum PGMs Positioning
00:47:04 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.