Bob Thompson: The Case for the Next Leg in the Bull Market
Tom welcomes a new guest, Bob Thompson, to the program. Bob is Senior Portfolio Manager at Thompson Investment Partners of Raymond James Ltd.
Bob discusses the importance of having a good macro view on the mining sector. Resources are very cyclical, and the times when people are most positive is the time of maximum risk. He sees a tremendous similarity between now and markets of the late 90s.
The S&P either needs to go down a lot or gold needs to rise significantly. It seems likely they will meet somewhere in the middle. Input costs squeeze most companies, and this is why resource companies do better for a period.
Bull markets tend to end a speculative blow-off. Afterwards, there is usually a different sector that takes the lead. We seem to be at the beginning of a new run in commodities, and perhaps we will have a decade long-run.
He doesn’t believe that tightening by the Fed will curb inflation because the Fed can’t raise rates to a meaningful level.
Bob quotes Alexander Tytler, a Scottish Historian, “A democracy can’t exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result that democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.”
The west has been living beyond its means, and creating more money, this eventually stops working. The system can’t support our wants indefinitely, even if everyone wants their promised piece of the unfunded liability pie.
Bob outlines each hour of his ‘The Mining Clock’ which can determine where we are in the cycle. The access to credit is what makes the great discoveries possible.
He likes to consider investing in any market that has moved down eighty percent.
ESG is providing an opportunity for investors that understand how negatively it is affecting energy markets. It’s denying of capital investment into the sector. Energy demand is fairly stable, but supply is shrinking.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Resource & Equity Cycles
6:35 – Printing & Growth Stocks
7:58 – S&P Vs. Gold Ratios
11:00 – Commodity Structures
14:45 – Margin Compression
16:17 – Pandemic & Inflation
20:34 – Tightening Policies
23:08 – Fed Recession/Inflation
25:09 – Alexander Tytler Quote
28:25 – Canadian Bubbles
32:18 – Strategic Allocation
35:27 – Market Strategies
40:18 – The Mining Clock
53:45 – Uranium Cycle
1:01:09 – ESG & Opportunity
1:06:13 – Copper & Silver
1:12:15 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The macro perspective on the mining sector.
- Bull markets and cautionary tips for investors
- His Mining Clock, and it’s importance in determining where you’re at in the mining cycle.
- Uranium and energy and why ESG is creating opportunity for keen investors.
When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.
Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada’s leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.
He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada’s Top Stock Pickers, a “must-read” for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean’s, The Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments.
Bob is actively involved with the community as a member of Canada Company: an organization committed to developing and supporting initiatives that help our men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces. He has also been a licensed pilot since the age of 16, and notes flying as one of his passions in life.