Kevin Wadsworth: Yields are Not Keeping Up with Inflation
Tom welcomes back The Market Weather Forecaster Kevin Wadsworth from NorthStarBadCharts.com to bring you the technical picture for the markets.
Kevin begins with the silver chart and explains why there is a possible further downside as the arc could be retested.
Gold has hit a significant technical level, and we need to see where the weekly chart will close. Now maybe another time where one can add to positions. In the short term, the shenanigans in the futures markets tend to shake investors, but for the long-term, the projections hold. The manipulation over long periods has made no difference to his forecasts. He’s expecting the real commodity bull market to begin around 2024.
Kevin discusses the bitcoin chart, and he has some confidence that the cryptocurrency bull market may be resuming. A breakthrough past fifty would be a very bullish sign.
The dollar chart is showing an important close for the end of this month. Kevin gives his thoughts on where the dollar and yields could head from here. Yields are no longer keeping up with inflation, and that represents a significant shift.
Uranium could retest the 31 levels, but the overall picture seems to be much higher over the next few years.
Lastly, Kevin provides a breakdown of Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis system and their methodology to stock picking based on these technicals.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:05 – Silver Chart
4:11 – Gold Charts
9:18 – Gold Long-Term
14:04 – Gold/Silver Ratio
15:30 – Bitcoin & Crypto
20:13 – US Dollar
28:00 – 30 Year Real Yields
40:00 – Uranium Spot
44:04 – Stage Analysis
45:26 – Energy Fuels
51:44 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Silver and Gold technicals and long-term trends.
- Bitcoin and could the cryptocurrency bull market resume.
- Expectations for the dollar and real yields.
- Uranium and an introduction to Stage Analysis.
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes ‘The Fourth Turning’, which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it’s likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on tuning out all the noise and presenting clear and uncluttered charts while gathering all of the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it.