Craig Hemke: The End of the Great Keynesian Experiment is Upon Us
Tom welcomes back Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report to the show.
Craig discusses his annual metals forecast and the macro picture for the markets. Daily, the price of the metals is driven by derivatives and algos. However, if you can figure out the macro picture then your gold forecast will work out.
Very little has changed in the Feds Policy over the past few years. The Fed today is all publicity focused and the markets are keen to listen to their every word. It’s ridiculous but it’s the only thing that matters. The focus is now on predicting what the Fed will do in several meetings in the future. Fundamentals no longer matter and indexes are mostly driven by a handful of stocks.
Should the Fed decide to raise rates in March the actual impact won’t be felt until the end of the year. During that time inflation will probably become even further entrenched.
The breakout points are going to be very clear for the metals soon and investors are going to climb aboard.
Craig explains the Chinese credit impulse cycle which reflects their monetary policy. China is the largest consumer in the world and when this impulse falls commodities usually decline. This trend now appears to be reversing. During past impulses, the metals moved up by twenty percent. Interestingly, all commodities are now picking up.
The dollar remains in a very clear uptrend channel and that is creating a headwind for gold. He gives some estimates for where gold could reach by the end of the year.
Investors should be cautious as to when there is a rush for gold there will only be so much physical available amongst all the paper promises.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Forecasting Markets
5:52 – Fed Up & Influence
12:16 – China & Commodities
16:02 – Investor Interest
18:27 – Q1 Weakness & Dollar
20:23 – 2022 Predictions
24:02 – Price Vs. Value
27:09 – Pooled Storage
30:55 – Silver & GDX
35:33 – The Long Game
38:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Craig’s macro thoughts and gold forecast
- Fed policy and investor sentiment.
- Thoughts on inflation and dollar expectations.
- Silver and how it tracks the GDX.
Craig Hemke, aka “Turd Ferguson,” was a licensed securities “professional” for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as “financial services,” he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal “markets.”