Charles Nenner: It’s Too Late to be Defensive
Tom welcomes a new guest, Charles Nenner. He provides independent market research to hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients.
He has been out of most markets for the last year, everything except crude oil and natural gas. They are looking for entry points in gold and silver after the summer. They have a downside target on the S&P of 3709, and, 11180 on the Nasdaq. There may be a bounce at that level, but it’s still a long-term bear market.
The correlations that experts give for inflation may be wrong. The causes of inflation have been building for a long time. Instead of trying to explain every action, it’s important to focus on the long market cycles. This will remove a lot of the guess work as to the causes. Charles explains the timeframes and cycle methodology that he utilizes in his research.
Charles argues the Fed is not really in control and that most of their actions have little effect. He believes they are worried about the situation. He notes that insiders started selling in the second half of last year.
The problem with the news is they will tell you why something happened after it happens.
In 2006, he predicted the housing market would crash, which it did. When stocks move up with a certain amount of momentum, you can calculate how long it will go up.
He predicted we would enter a war cycle based on historic cycles. The second decade of a new century tends to have wars. Years ending in a 7 tend to have large downward equity moves. 1929 was an exception. He doesn’t understand why these things happen, but he can find the patterns.
Every sixty to eighty years, a new country takes the economic lead in the world. The next cycle will be China and other countries, and they will become a big economic power and Europe will barely hang on.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Being Defensive
3:12 – Inflation
5:14 – Timeframes & Cycles
5:57 – Advances & Declines
6:58 – Bond Yields & Fed
9:51- Gold & Oil Cycles
12:12 – Random Planning
16:08 – Past Calls
17:07 – War Cycles & Rhymes
21:49 – Cycles Culminating
22:38 – Wars & Geopolitics
25:35 – Leading Economies
27:46 – Cycles & Commodities
31:00 – Media Agendas
31:52 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Studying market cycles instead of the mainstream news.
- The causes of inflation are long-term structural issues, and the experts are probably wrong.
- Fed is not really in control and insiders have been selling since last fall.
- Predicting the cycles of War and other interesting market patterns.
In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman’s fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001. From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor, NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner’s use of proprietary cycle analysis. Mr. Nenner graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.