Trader Stef: Monetary Velocity and Inflation Expectations Will Push Gold Past $3,000
Tom welcomes Trader Stef, a new guest to the show. Stef has a background in the investment banking industry, and today she regularly posts her technical analysis on her website and Twitter.
Stef discusses the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates low until 2023. They are also considering eliminating the 2% interest rate target, allowing for higher inflation rates. In nominal terms, we are already at negative interest rates, and countries in Europe have been negative for some time. Officially the Fed doesn’t want to enter NIRP territory, but factoring inflation, then we are already at those levels.
The velocity of money is a measure of how fast dollars are changing hands in the real economy. When money velocity is this low, significant inflation is unlikely to appear.
She discusses breaking the all-time high in gold and what that means for this secular bull market. Stef gives us Fibonacci upside targets for gold and silver. She points out that we are overbought, but we could run farther and farther than investors might think possible. There are additional Fibonacci levels she believes may act as resistance levels in this bull market.
She says, “The longer a market runs hot and higher, the harder the fall or chop will be no matter the type of asset. Don’t go chasing strength; consider taking some profits and re-invest your position.”
Time Stamp References:
0:40 – Covid strains and risk of a comeback.
4:25 – Real vs nominal interest rates.
8:15 – NIRP/ZIRP and Feds official policy.
13:00 – Money Velocity, US Dollar, and MZM
21:15 – Hot markets and how far they can run.
23:10 – Silver expectations.
29:15 – Sell-off risk during next market correction.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
• Fed interest rate and inflation policies.
• Why inflation will remain low due to money velocity.
• Gold and silver Fibonacci targets.
• Avoid chasing strength and consider taking some profits.
Trader Stef pursued a career within the NYC investment banking industry beginning in 1996, where she developed a diverse skillset and earned accomplishments while working with C-level Wall Street talent. These skills include executive administration, human resourcing, the registered representatives “bullpen,” technology and communication, training education and development, business analysis, and global risk management. Her interest in the precious metals began in 1999 while following financial market trends post-Dotcom bubble and 9/11, then exited corporate investment banking in the dark days of the great financial crisis after five years in risk management at Citigroup.
As an independent investor-trader, Trader Stef was mentored and began cutting her professional technical analysis teeth in a live trading room venue for three years. This was when she developed and hosted a Precious Hour live webinar. A BFA with high honors from one of the leading visual arts institutions in the world and freelance work in photography and publishing in New York City afforded her an uncanny ability to readily recognize intricate stock chart patterns in combination with various technical studies. The Precious Hour specializes in gold and silver, mining stocks, and general equities, combined with research on industry fundamentals, global news, geopolitics, and monetary policy, otherwise known as Fusion Analysis.
Her technical analysis charting has promulgated through social and financial media platforms since 2013. She interviews with financial publications and appears as a guest on live talk radio, provides market analysis behind the scenes upon request. She also publishes articles about the precious metals industry and financial markets.
Trader Stef can be reached via the links below and through her Twitter, where a follow is not necessary to send a direct message. She says, “Don’t miss the archive of material uploaded at my YouTube channel.”