Robert R. Prechter: Peak of All Peaks – A Market Top Of The Ages & Why The Bear is Here to Stay
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show Robert R. Prechter, the founder of Elliott Wave International. Robert believes that social mood shapes events, not the other way around. He argues that human beings go through cycles of positive and negative moods that have an impact on the stock market and other areas of society. He has observed that conflicts tend to break out when social mood is declining after reaching a peak. This correlation has been seen in the recent events in the Middle East. Bob explains how the human brain is conditioned to think linearly, which makes it difficult to understand the fractal nature of the stock market.
He gives examples of how regular explanations for market changes often fail, while predictions using the Elliott wave model have been more successful. He also discusses how the recent mania for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies is a reflection of the positive social mood that has been prevalent since the end of the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he believes that this is coming to an end, and the world is entering a negative mood phase.
Bob also talks about the potential for a deflationary crash and how investors can protect themselves by investing in safe assets like gold, silver, and floating rate notes. He recommends having an offshore bank account and a second passport as a backup. He also offers a special landing page for listeners of Palisades Gold, which provides free resources and discounted options for his book “Conquer the Crash” and various subscription services.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Social mood drives market trends, not news events.
- Debt and speculation have caused a bubble in real estate and other investments.
- Take precautionary measures such as investing in gold and securing an offshore account to protect against potential market crashes.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – Socionomics & Moods
4:45 – Movement & Fractal Thinking
6:00 – Commodities & Covid
9:00 – Current Outlook & Optimism
15:00 – Lockdown Effects
18:30 – Supercycles & Trends
20:00 – Bitcoin & Currencies
24:30 – CBDC Concerns
27:00 – Bond Rate Bomb
29:20 – Feds Control Illusion
32:40 – Politics & Sentiment
34:30 – Real Estate Debt
38:35 – Dollar Outlook & Gold
41:00 – Deflationary Impulse
43:45 – Zero-Day Derivatives
45:50 – Banks & Bail-Ins?
48:45 – Safety & Gold/Silver
50:45 – Metal Storage & Passports
52:30 – Africa & Passports
54:30 – Concluding Thoughts
Robert R. Prechter has authored 20 books on finance, including a New York Times bestseller. Since founding Elliott Wave International in 1979, Bob has focused on analyzing financial markets from a technical perspective. Prechter writes the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist, one of the longest-running financial publications in existence today. Prechter has developed a theory of social causality called socionomics, whose main hypothesis is that waves of social mood prompt social actions, including trends in fashion, entertainment and the overall pricing of stocks. Prechter has co-authored several academic papers, including one demonstrating that the stock market can predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections when an incumbent is running. Bob has been a lifelong advocate of real money as opposed to fiat money.