Chris Rutherglen: Gold’s Cycle Highs are Dead Ahead
Tom welcomes a new guest Chris Rutherglen. Chris has a Ph.D. and is a Semiconductor Engineer and has an interesting approach to cycle analysis of the gold price. In 2003 he became interested right out of university in metals. This was around the 2003 cycle low for gold. This led him to value investing. After graduate school, he obtained his CFA Levels.
Chris explains his interesting charting approach to projecting the future price for gold by contrasting it against money supply and annual mine supply. These levels give you a reference benchmark and seem useful for judging resistance levels and timing the market cycle. Understanding the growth in the money supply is key.
He shows several charts of gold’s historic price along with the percentage gains. There are two key cycles of 7.5 years and 15 years to watch. Chris notes that the biggest performance gains are likely to occur on the way to $3000+ gold. He expects a strong move upwards during 2022 and 2023 then a significant pullback which will become another great buying opportunity.
Chris details his thoughts on the dollar and where it could go during its three and fifteen-year cycles. There doesn’t appear to be much strength left in the dollar and we should be in for a further decline soon. The mid-point of this decade is a likely target for gold reaching its high.
Lastly, he details his thoughts on Comex gold futures including deliveries and premiums.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:57 – His Background
3:54 – Gold Price Models
7:02 – Cycle Levels for Gold
10:13 – Cycle Levels & M2/CPI
13:00 – Current Cycle Position
16:55 – Model Price Levels
19:23 – 7.5 Year Cycle-Low 2008
20:07 – The 70s/80s+ Gold Cycles
22:01 – Present Advancing Phase
24:13 – Gold’s Two Cycles
27:15 – Path to $3000
31:22 – US Dollar Cycles
35:49 – Gold & USD
38:47 – All Sector Debt/M2
43:25 – Gold’s Path to 7K
44:46 – 45-Year Cycle
45:33 – 1970s Comparison
50:00 – Gold to Fed Funds Rate
53:37 – Comex Gold Futures
57:05 – Comex Deliveries
1:01:09 – Max Pain Threshold
1:06:10 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Charting and projecting gold future performance.
- Golds cyclical patterns of 7 and 15 years.
- Comparing the 70s move to today.
- Analyzing Comex gold futures and deliveries.
Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He first began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvine.