Tavi Costa: Government is Trying to Hide Real Inflation
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi discusses why 2021 could be worse due to stimulus and fiscal deficit spending. The Fed has been buying 50 to 60% of all treasuries, and we see additional issuance of longer-duration treasuries. The Fed must continue to suppress interest rates to permit the government to spend and invest at the current rates. This is also required to justify the record multiples we see in the equities and corporate bonds. Investors are starting to buy physical assets to offset this dilution of money.
The long-term basis shows declining ownership by foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries. The Fed, therefore, has to be the buyer of last resort. The government is expanding the amount of debt in the system while the private sector has essentially improved its balance sheets.
The taxpayer inevitably ends up paying for the mess the government creates. Expect this to happen again. Almost every asset class is near all-time highs today. Tavi discusses historic inflation periods and how they may project where we are heading. He remains cautious about equity markets and believes that commodities will outperform in the coming years.
Clearly, over the past year, numerous supply disruptions have adversely affected the supply chain. Skilled labor is hard to find today, and stimulus programs are limiting the ability of the economy to get back to normal. Costs of living will rise, and we may see increasing pressure for higher wages and salaries.
Governments are trying to hide real inflation in the system because they can’t fix it. Oil, gold, silver, and copper all look incredibly cheap right now. In addition, the green agenda makes mining and resource use even more difficult.
Tavi discusses the potential for a deflationary crash to correct overvalued asset classes like equities. However, such a decline may shortly afterward be accompanied by another round of massive stimulus.
The long-term chart of silver is nearing breakout levels and could go much higher than investors believe. They are also very bullish on gold and can see it trading higher than $2000 in the next year or so. Mining fundamentals are improving rapidly, and major miners are leading growth in the sector. Tavi explains how they diversify their portfolio worldwide and why their overall goal is to become involved early in the mining cycle.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Fed is Trapped
3:10 – Foreign – Treasuries
6:04 – Taxes & Revenue
9:24 – Equity Valuations
11:46 – Commodity Prices
15:14 – Supply Chain Issues
19:24 – Inflation Projections
26:08 – Equity Bubbles
29:46 – Crash Signals?
32:44 – Silver Predictions
34:50 – Gold Outlook
36:56 – Majors Leading
39:12 – Crescat Methodology
41:57 – Gold Supply Cliff
46:05 – Concluding Thoughts
47:48 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
- Treasury issuance and Federal Reserve purchasing.
- Equity valuations and signals of coming inflation.
- Potential for an equity correction and risks of further corrective stimulus.
- Mining sector growth and improving fundamentals.
Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.