Ronald-Peter Stöeferle: We Are Still at the Beginning of a Big Bull Market for Gold
Ronald looks back at gold’s performance during 2019 and discusses how it operates as a seventh sense in the market. Gold is revealing issues and projecting an increase in recessionary and inflationary concerns. Both of these topics are quickly becoming contrarian perspectives as the Economist magazine recently noted in their Special Report that “We have reached the end of inflation.” Sentiment for gold remains negative despite gold reaching all-time highs against fifty currencies. All of this is indicating that we are still at the start of the bull market.
The yield curve inversion and steepening are reliable indicators of a coming recession. Globally there are signs we are entering a cooling phase. Fed Repo policies are indicating that the system is broken, and this recent policy u-turn has reversed all of the Fed’s gains from quantitative tightening. Central banker Christine LaGarde is proposing direct fiscal stimulus to European citizen’s bank accounts, which will likely bring direct effects on inflation and growth numbers.
Ronald sees an increase in interest in gold by media and mainstream finance. Overall, the mining space is looking very positive, and silver will lead the next leg up.
He finds that re-reading good books is an excellent way to get more out of them. Favorite books that he recommends include “The Raven of Zurich” by Felix Somary, “How Global Currencies Work” by Barry Eichengreen, Clash of Empires by Charles Gave, and a particular favorite “The World of Yesterday” by Stefan Zweig.
2020 is looking like an exciting year, and this new monetary environment is bringing a perfect storm to investors in both gold and inflation. It will be turbulent, but there are good quarters ahead for us.
Time Stamp References
0:40 – 2019 Market Highlights
4:23 – The Fed and the likelihood of a recession.
9:40 – Junior miners and public participation.
13:45 – Successes with Incrementums fund.
16:30 – Favorite books and authors.
18:50 – His expectations for 2020.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
• A review of gold and mining in 2019
• Recessionary pressures and inflation potential.
• Outlook and consolidation potential for miners.
• Favorite books and authors.
Ronald-Peter Stöeferle is a Chartered Market Technician and a Certified Financial Technician. During his studies in business administration and finance at the Vienna University of Economics and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he worked for Raiffeisen Zentralbank in the field of Fixed Income/Credit Investments. After graduating from university, Stoeferle joined Vienna based Erste Group Bank, covering International Equities, especially Asia. In 2006 he began writing reports on gold and gained media attention when he expected the price of gold to rise to USD 2,300/ounce when the current price was only at USD 500. His six benchmark reports called “In Gold we Trust” drew international coverage on CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Economist, and the Financial Times.
In 2013 he became managing director and partner of Incrementum AG, based in the Principality of Liechtenstein. The company focuses on asset management and wealth management and is one hundred percent owned by its partners. He continues to write the annual “In Gold we Trust” as a senior advisor to Erste Group.