Christopher Aaron: Golds False Breakdown Means a Strong Bull Market Ahead
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron. He discusses his new analysis that he recently discussed at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.
He discusses the history of gold and miners over the past few years. We’ve seen a period of consolidation of the last couple of years, but that is shifting. In September, we didn’t see a wash-out in the metals after a breakdown. Instead, we went above the 1650 level. Buyers started to move into the market, which was different behavior than what we have seen. The big picture is we have seen a false breakdown that doesn’t carry through. Numerous shorts had to cover following that event. The key takeaway is a false breakdown is a signal for a move in the opposite direction.
The big picture is this market should now be biased to the upside. He expects a good end to the year for gold. He believes the next rally towards the 2000 level will be successful. The first sign will be that the monthly close will prelude a breakout to new all-time highs. He provides some targets for where gold should reach.
Chris discusses what is realistic for silver markets in the coming couple of years. Eventually, when we reach the $45 dollar level, investors may want to take some profits. It probably won’t blast through it right away. He discusses some of the industrial demand factors for silver.
He believes that inflation will plateau around the 4.5% range, and later it may rise higher. This is not what markets are expecting.
Valuations for miners are quite low, and the price for reserves in the ground is quite low. We’re looking at 5x to 10x lower valuations than ten years ago. He notes that sentiment remains quite low in the miners and metals. Only very prudent investors are moving into metals.
He notes there are those who like to keep the population in a state of fear and concern. They like the state of perpetual war, and fiat currency is what permits this behavior. They want to keep people on the taxation and inflation treadmill. We need a system that prevents government from spending beyond its means.
What is important to keep in mind is that society in many ways is progressing. Despite the bad things, there is a lot of potential, and it’s important to keep space for possibility and optimism.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Analysis & Gold Outlook
7:30 – Technicals & Resistance
10:47 – Fundamental Issues
14:10 – Measured Target
16:12 – Silver Vs. Gold Mkts.
24:42 – Dollar & Metals
26:27 – Fed & Inflation
30:12 – The Lag in Miners
38:17 – Sovereign Opportunities
41:54 – War, Gold, & Narratives
48:51 – Taxes – Words & Numbers
51:20 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Analysis of the gold and silver markets, plus price targets.
- Dollars impact on the metals and the effects of inflation.
- Taking personal responsibility and finding sovereign opportunities.
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metal’s investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.