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Matthew Piepenburg: US Debt is Already Falling from the Cliff of No Return

Tom welcomes back Michael Piepenburg Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management to the show.

Matt discusses the current state of the US economy and the potential risks developing. He argues that the Federal Reserve’s policy of increasing interest rates and reducing the balance sheet has weakened the dollar and created distrust among emerging markets and developing economies. He suggested that investors wait until the market tanks before buying as the Fed will only pivot then. He also pointed out the $1.85 trillion that the Treasury announced it will borrow by the end of the year and how this could lead to a credit contraction and a credit crisis. He believes that the only solution to the US government’s debt situation is to increase money supply through printing more money, which will lead inevitably to further inflation.

Matt also discussed the labor market and CPI stats and how they may be misleading. He believes that the labor data is specious and disingenuous, as it ignores people who have stopped looking for jobs and includes people with multiple jobs. He believes that de-dollarization is already happening, but it won’t happen overnight. He emphasizes the importance of keeping a level head while others are losing theirs and believes that the debt levels of the US are already creating serious problems, and that these can only be solved by having more informed people in positions of power.

Matt believes the Federal Reserve’s attempts to prevent inflation will ultimately end in inflation and suggests that investors protect their purchasing power. He also warns that politicians are unlikely to win an election by advocating for austerity, higher taxes, and a period of recession.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Centralization & Debt
8:21 – Bank Failures & CBDC
13:39 – Banks & Davos Leaders
18:45 – Hyperfinancialization
23:25 – Elections & Fed Policy
30:47 – Japanese Carry Trade
35:39 – Rates & Reserve Currency
41:31 – Fed Pivot & Equities
45:24 – Signs of Recession
48:47 – The Invisible Tax
54:12 – Money Printing & CPI
57:33 – Growth & Labor Markets
1:00:37 – BRICS Summit Thoughts
1:09:19 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • The US economy is facing serious risk due to the Federal Reserve’s policy of increasing interest rates while reducing the balance sheet.
  • Labor market and CPI stats may be misleading and de-dollarization is already happening.
  • The only way out of the current mess is to have more informed people in positions of power.

Guest Links
Book (Amazon):

Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the author of the popular book, “Rigged to Fail”. Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at

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