Tony Greer: Fed’s Policies Will Spur a Commodities Boom
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Tony Greer. Tony comes highly recommended by the ‘Chicken with a Terminal’ – Doomberg. He details his background on Wall Street and experience with both commodities and writing a morning newsletter.
Tony explains his two daily reminders which help maintain his focus on the markets. Assets are key and the Fed will continue to print. This is why the stock markets continue to rise. The talk of a taper continues while the Fed’s balance sheet keeps ballooning. We have massively diluted the dollar over the past couple of years and therefore inflation is destined to continue.
Tony says he “hates losing money” and that helps him focus on the charts. Staying with what is working is key for him and finding the early-stage opportunities. Patience is key along with sticking to your strategy.
The tech sector is taking a massive percentage of the equities markets when compared with energy or resources. The ESG theme is choking oil supplies by squelching investment and canceling projects. He’s looking for two hundred dollar crude prices in the future.
Our position on energy has deteriorated under Biden and we are once again highly reliant on foreign oil and OPEC.
He expects the commodity and resource space to do well during the inflation period we are entering. The world needs battery metals and other base metals to reach electrification goals. We’re seeing a rotation out of everything tech and into other sectors including commodities.
He discusses gold and the risks that come with it. It’s highly correlated to the dollar and often has early morning raids. For Tony, there are often way better trades.
The bullish case for crypto is being demonstrated right now with Trudeau’s actions. Crypto may have a hard time rallying when commodities are moving. However, cryptos don’t have to be performing to be important in the world’s economy.
Lastly, he says, “Make sure you’re adjusting your portfolio to deal with inflation.”
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:10 – The Morning Navigator
5:12 – Post It Reminders
9:12 – Staying Nimble
14:42 – Risk & Leverage
17:55 – Inflation & Oil
24:54 – Europe Lessons
27:34 – US Energy Policy
30:13 – Equity Rotation
35:28 – Bearish Signposts
38:40 – VIX Thoughts
44:20 – Gold Factors
47:55 – Gold & Inflation
50:20 – Crypto Markets
54:48 – Concluding Advice
56:40 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The two factors he bases his daily trades upon.
- ESG impacts on the energy markets and the risks of further inflation.
- Tech sector decline and the rotation into commodities and resources.
- Thoughts on crypto performance in a commodity rally.
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony Greer followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.