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David Murrin: War, Inflation and De-Globalization – Navigating an Unstable Future

Tom Bodrovics is once again joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the interrelatedness of China and Russia and the possibility of more conflicts around the world. Murrin explains the Kondratiev Cycle of economic turmoil and how it has manifested as a war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine. He warns of the dangers of lateral thinking predators like Putin and Xi and paints a scenario of what an unstable future could look like if Ukraine loses the war. He argues that the Biden administration is the root of the problem and that NATO needs to go on a wartime footing and provide essential equipment to Ukraine.

Murrin highlights the danger of World War Three, suggesting that it looks more like a hot war than a Cold War. He speaks of the White House’s effective use of oil caps to deplete Putin’s treasury and the irony that Europe is funding Putin’s war in Ukraine. He also discusses the development of AI and quantum computing and how it is leading to an arms race between China and the United States, with the Chinese ahead. He speaks of Putin’s Achilles heel- the fact that Russia’s demographics are in decline, and how Brexit was an attempted revolution in thought, but it failed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Murrin also talks about inflation, saying that it is the signal from nature that tells us that systems have become tired and old and need to be changed. He believes that the surge of inflation will decrease demand and lead to commodity constriction due to Cold War, bifurcation and conflict. He talks about the BRICS Plus alliance and de-globalization, and the idea of turbocharging growth through productivity and innovation. Finally, he gives his long-term targets for gold and silver and encourages everyone to be bold and recognize problems to create a cascade of change and demand for change.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – China, Russia & Conflict
6:10 – Prigozhin & Wagner
10:00 – Leadership & Thinkers
12:46 – Ukraine & Putins Goal
17:05 – World War III
24:14 – Supply Constrictions
26:26 – Europe, Russia & Energy
31:32 – Putin’s Achilles Heel
35:05 – A.I. Singularity
42:30 – Better Leadership
49:10 – Cycles & Inflation
53:05 – Dollar & Currencies
59:10 – Inflation & Trade
1:02:16 – Rising Rates & Bubbles
1:07:32 – Bonds & Money Printing
1:09:56 – Ratchet Risk Model
1:12:14 – Gold & Silver Outlook
1:17:54 – Ukraine & Geopolitics
1:22:50 – Concluding Thoughts
1:30:07 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • David Murrin warns of the dangers of lateral thinking predators like Putin and Xi and the need for NATO to go on a wartime footing to protect the West.
  • The arms race between China and the United States over AI and quantum computing and the need for lateral leaders to adapt and move forward.
  • Possible gold targets and the importance of demanding change from government.

Guest Links

David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.

In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.

In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.

David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.

Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.

In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.

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