Vincent Lanci: Commodities Flashing Inflation, Gold is Next
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Vincent Lanci. Vince discusses his background in energy and precious metals and he manages money for a couple of hedge funds.
Vince explains some of the terms surrounding the bond markets and the current signs of low investor interest. Strangely, there was a massive reaction on Thursday’s Treasury auction to that lack of interest. The market was behaving like it expected the Fed to raise rates.
In his speech on Thursday, everything that Powell said revealed the Fed would not raise rates, and they were not concerned by inflation. They stated they would remain extremely accommodating.
A small stock like GME can have an outsized effect on the market because it reveals the system’s large amount of leverage. This leverage has caused cascading risk effects thru the system and has affected market psychology. Don’t risk anything your not prepared to lose because leverage will eventually be called.
This market has to end with either extreme inflation or extreme deflation. Vince explains how things could move in either direction. We may have a deflationary collapse, and inevitably, this all ends with something like a reset.
He is bullish on Bitcoin as a technology but cautions that it moves based on a lot of FOMO. Bitcoin may be getting ahead of itself, and it’s hard to judge what the price should be because it’s all based on demand. At some point, there will be further regulatory decisions that will likely hinder those accessing it.
Silver won’t be easy to squeeze because it’s not Gamestop stock; it’s a sizeable physical market. Comex default will likely be a slow process because they will do whatever it takes to avoid a hit to their reputation. He argues there are many things they can and will do to slow the market down. Also, they can change the rules.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Intro
0:31 – Vincent’s Background
1:52 – Bonds & Yield Curve Control
4:22 – Powell Speech
5:19 – Bonds & Broader Markets
7:17 – Correlations Don’t Matter
9:32 – GME and Short Covering.
12:10 – Risk and Controlling FOMO.
14:04 – End Game Thoughts
16:58 – Bitcoin and Hyperinflation
20:23 – Comex & Silver
21:45 – Comex Default Risk
23:49 – Fighting Decentralization
28:07 – Gold Last to Rally
30:24 – Gold Signposts
32:21 – Michael’s Moor’s Analytics
35:14 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Bond Markets and Rates
- Powel’s Speech and Fed Actions
- Decentralization, Markets, and Bitcoin
- Silver, the Comex, and Gold
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Options expert. In 2017 Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay’s predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS’s parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003 Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000 he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.