Lance Lewis: Full Steam Ahead for the Fed to Taper
Tom welcomes back Lance Lewis President of Lewis Capital. Lance discusses the somewhat stagnant gold market over the past months. He notes that gold is currently on the edge of a many-month compression triangle. This market for gold feels like a bear market especially since everything else has been melting up. This should concern investors since at some point this trend will end. He lays out a couple of different scenarios for where gold may head.
Lance discusses the monetary environment and the Fed’s desire to pull back on its accommodative policies. Eventually, the low for gold will be in and it will probably coincide with equity markets dropping. Gold stopped reacting to real yields back in 2020 when rates reached quite low numbers.
He explains his gold model and some of the indicators it uses. Currently, it’s fairly neutral on the market.
Miners may be improving simply because the market has gotten too short.
The seasonal tendency for equities is to move into autopilot once we’ve made it thru October. Usually, the Fed’s actions create problems for equities and tapering reveals the next underlying problem with the economy or banking system.
Current inflation is not transitory but depends on monetary policy. When the Fed backs off on stimulus we will see an eventual decline in inflationary pressures. However, be mindful as there is likely another crisis coming. This will drive the next cycle of inflation. This current inflationary period isn’t going to end quickly. Everyone is now talking about inflation which makes it a bad time to get long on inflation.
The next ten days will be interesting to see where gold and the mining equities are heading.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Intro
0:39 – A Year Later
2:02 – Golds Performance
8:02 – Options Expiration
8:56 – FOMC Meeting
12:08 – 200 Day MA
13:21 – Real Yields & Gold
15:33 – His Gold Model
20:18 – Gold Vs. Currencies
20:47 – Miners Performance
22:39 – S&P Highs & Autopilot
25:28 – Equity Risks & The Fed
26:31 – Trading Suggestions
27:50 – Commodities & Inflation
30:27 – Fed & Insider Trading
31:40 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Expectations for the Gold market and miners.
- His gold model and understanding market indicators.
- The broader equities, Feds taper plans, and gold.
- Inflationary pressures and when is the next crisis.
Lance J. Lewis is the President and Founder of Lewis Capital since it started in 2002. They provide investment services to individuals, trusts, estates, pension, and profit-sharing plans, corporations, and other business entities.
Mr. Lewis was the chief strategist at East Shore Partners, Inc. from March 2002 to June 2007 and was a junior partner in the Veneroso Gold Fund from 2004 to 2007. Before founding Lewis Capital in March of 2002, Mr. Lewis was a trader and a gold mining and technology analyst for David Tice & Associates, which managed the Prudent Bear and Safe Harbor mutual funds, from May 2000 to February 2002.
He received a Bachelor of Arts from Baylor University in 1995 as a “University Scholar” with a focus on Accounting, Finance, and English, and a JD from the University of Texas School Of Law in 1999.