Patrick Karim and Chris Vermeulen: Silver Supercycle Unfolding
Tom welcomes Patrick Karim, who is a proprietary capital manager, and Chris Vermeulen, the founder of Technical Traders Ltd., back to the program.
Patrick brings us several charts to review, beginning with a comparison of USD/Swiss Franc contrasted with gold. There is a cyclical 16-year pattern, and by all indications, we are early into this cycle. Chris discusses how stochastic indicators often show a long-term power zone over longer timeframes.
The Canadian and Australian dollar charts appear to be gradually strengthening, likely due to support from the coming commodity bull market. Both have broken out of their descending trendline after their March lows. Silver has broken out in both currencies.
Patrick discusses why it’s essential to understand where you are in the overall long-term cycle. He charts treasury returns in terms of real yields and outlines why yields seem to be heading lower.
Chris discusses how the general populace has yet to realize their loss of purchasing power. The economy is relatively weak, and at some point, there will be a panic. He also explains the significance of moving average death crosses and their usefulness in determining if one is overextended.
They evaluate the outlook for gold and make some predictions. Chris expects gold to eventually reach a mania phase like what occurred with bitcoin. We are currently nowhere near those adoption levels since equities have had such a strong run that most investors have yet to consider diversifying.
Patrick discusses the VIX and why a downtrend is bullish for gold and silver. If we have a market crash, gold and silver will probably get pulled down along with everything else due to the liquidity crunch. Metals will then outperform once central banks overreact. In the long-term, metals are going to be the place to be.
Time Stamp References:
0:55 – USD vs Swiss Franc and Gold
5:30 – Canada vs US Dollar
10:00 – Australia dollar vs USD
12:00 – Treasuries in real terms.
16:50 – Silver in Australian Dollars
21:00 – Silver cycles in Canadian Dollar
22:50 – Gold monthly log chart and target.
35:40 – Gold daily chart and support levels.
38:55 – VIX, fear, and the S&P
Talking Points From This Episode
- Swiss Franc’s performance relative to gold.
- Canadian & Australian dollar versus silver.
- Potential targets for silver and gold.
- VIX trends and outlook for the broader markets.
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. and has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.
Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.
Chris Vermeulen – Guest Links:
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to achieve a systematic approach to evaluating trading scenarios.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factors, ex: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.Patrick Karim – Guest Links:
Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim