Sam Lawrie: The Devastating Effects of Financial Black Swans
Tom welcomes Sam Lawrie from Adams Bullion to the show. Sam discusses his background in the finance industry and the potential risks associated with leveraged trades. He describes leverage as like a Ferrari, it can be a lot of fun but you can also wrap it around a tree. He examines the consequences after the Swiss central bank broke the peg between the Swiss Franc and Euro, despite traders applying risk management techniques.
He reflects on the United States still acting as the centerpiece of the world’s financial market, and the possible risks of a major sell-off in treasuries, resulting in a potential global financial crisis. He acknowledges that rules in the financial market can be changed at a moment’s notice, another risk investors should be cautious of.
The long-term Keynesian policies by central banks have resulted in rising inflation which may ultimately lead to a lack of confidence in a country’s currency. Commodity-producing countries may be in a better position when compared to consuming countries, however, both Australia and Canada have seen issues in their asset bubbles and in particular there housing markets.
He believes silver is lagging due to dollar strength and has the potential to outperform at some point. Sam believes the Australian dollar is likely to remain weak, aiding in the value of gold in the currency.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Sam’s Background
6:18 – Black Swan Events
10:52 – Broker Failure Risk
13:12 – Forex Carry Trades
19:08 – Japan’s Approach
22:00 – Treasury Markets
24:10 – Banks & Failures
29:04 – Rates & Rebalancing
31:39 – End of the Road
35:55 – Inflation Outlook
39:22 – Gold Vs. Silver
42:53 – Metals Undervalued
45:27 – Incentives & Thieves
48:08 – Bullion & Activisim
49:49 – Wrap Up
Sam has worked in the financial services industry for 5 years across CFD broking, algorithmic trading, equities analysis services and bullion dealing. He is an avid precious metals investor and advocate, having started his precious metals journey in 2018.
Sam has worked with thousands of clients over the years, teaching them about finance, economics, and precious metals, helping them to protect themselves financially. His experience in the bullion industry began in 2020, working at a major bullion dealer in Melbourne.
Sam has had a fascination with economics stretching back to when he was in high school, winning the school economics award during his final year. A memorable moment from this was when he asked his teacher why central banks set interest rates, rather than the free market. Sam pursued this interest further at Melbourne University, studying a Bachelor of Commerce with a double major in Finance and Economics.
Sam’s passion for the precious metals and everything that they represent has pushed him to work with John Adams to create Adams Bullion, combining Sam’s knowledge of the inner workings of the bullion industry with John’s superb economic analysis and political achievements to date, creating Australia’s most politically active bullion dealer.