Michael Oliver: The Blowoff Top is Here
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis.
Michael discusses the bubbles in the equity markets, and the S&P indicates a top while momentum is waning. Bear markets typically begin with a gradual arm-wrestling decline and often no crashes, which he expects will occur. Michaels proprietary volatility indicators are now showing a similar pattern that we saw in 2008.
Michael believes we have already seen the blowoff top, and that phase seems to be over. Many momentum structures are signaling a shift in the markets and most investors have yet to notice. He expects a regular arduous bear market with a series of declines and no crashes. Once this occurs, the Fed will likely cancel all talk of tapering. They will be unable to push the markets higher due to the amount of monetary expansion globally.
Gold and silver are both building out structures for their next move, which he thinks will be significant. We’re going to see considerable capital flows from the broader markets into the metals. Investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the value of their money, and that will drive non-traditional investors to gold.
He expects the miners to snap back as soon as the momentum in gold and silver shifts. Finally, he makes predictions for the next couple of years for gold and silver, along with where he expects treasuries and commodities to head overall.
Commodities are reflecting inflation, and he explains why investors should exclude steel and lumber. The broader commodity complex is at the same stage as in the late-1970s.
Lastly, he breaks down where the dollar is likely to head from here and some potential targets for the dollar index.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Intro
0:39 – Equity Market Concerns
8:49 – Equity Performance
13:42 – Path From Here?
16:02 – Fed’s Response?
24:59 – Gold/Silver Behavior
31:00 – Major Move Coming?
32:53 – Capital Movements
34:51 – Miners & GDX
36:48 – AU/AG Next Two Years
40:47 – Relationships
43:06 – Monetary Inflation
46:43 – US Dollar
49:50 – Chaos Theory
51:28 – Concluding Thoughts
52:23 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- His expectations for the stock markets and a likely coming decline.
- Why the Fed’s ability to respond will be limited.
- Expectations for gold, silver, and the miners.
- Commodities, inflation, and where the dollar is heading.
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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.