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Chase Taylor: Long-Term Debt Cycle Coming to an End

Tom welcomes a new guest Chase Taylor to the show. Chase is a macro strategist and editor of Pinecone Macro Research. He came up with the name Pinecone based on how pine trees take a very long-term approach to growth.

Most investors are focused on short-term quick investing methods. However, the long-term approach is often the most powerful. The longer a cycle the fewer people are likely to be paying attention. We’re near the end of the debt cycle and reaching a turning point where we have to inflate it away. We also have a capital cycle where commodities have become way undervalued. What is coming will change everything.

He notes that the recent economic data is skewed due to the rapid recession and recovery. The year-over-year data will take a while longer to stabilize.

Chase notes that investors and institutions are just beginning to notice that inflation is exploding higher than we were told to expect.

The outlook for the dollar continues to be dependent on the monetary policies of other countries. He feels the dollar is likely to move down over the medium term. In addition, there are likely to be problems with energy in the United States.

Green energy is creating many crises which we are witnessing. The decisions made over the last ten years have had serious consequences and starving the fossil fuel industry of capital is not a good solution in a world that requires energy.

Chase discusses the impact of climate cycles and weather on the economy and how he uses these to his advantage. Natural gas inventories are on the low side and there could be issues should the U.S. experience any polar vortices.

China is set to artificially control coal prices and this could result in production issues.

During periods of high inflation, gold becomes a much more important place to store wealth. Energy prices will affect everything. Metals should do well in the near to mid-term. Keep an eye on the Fed as higher rates could change this forecast.

He discusses how many of the miners look very good right now.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Background & Pinecone
4:24 – Very Long Cycles
6:32 – Capital/Debt Cycles
9:18 – Rates of Change
11:30 – Supply/Demand
13:23 – Inflation YOY
16:52 – Fed Rates & Debt
18:40 – Dollar Outlook
20:27 – Green Energy & Risks
24:08 – Weather Cycles
28:15 – Energy Inventories
31:50 – China & Coal
35:10 – China & Crypto
37:12 – Nuclear Energy
42:54 – Energy & Metals
46:10 – Golds Importance
48:35 – Trading Timeframes
51:18 – Company Valuations
53:23 – Corn
53:50 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • The long-term approach to investing.
  • Recent economic data will take time to stabilize.
  • Green energy implications and energy risks.
  • Energy cycles, climate, and metal prices.

Guest Links:

Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.

Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.

Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.

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