Peter Goodburn: The Dollar is in Its Terminal Phase
Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn to the show. Peter is the founding partner of WaveTrack International.
Peter discusses how his commodity supercycle theory is likely to play out. This is a very long-term cycle over the past ninety plus years.
Many companies were wiped out during the pandemic, and there have been many mergers. This has resulted in shortages along with events like the Ukraine war. Much of this had to do with the transportation ports being unable to keep up with demand. He shows some Elliot Wave charts which detail how inflation in emerging markets and U.S. stocks. Elliott wave is quite useful for seeing patterns and determining where markets are likely to head. After this year’s correction plays out, he sees a big commodity cycle move next year across many asset classes. Both interest rates and inflation will move considerably higher.
Elliott models are based on repeating patterns that aren’t random. There is a process of pattern development that can help predict future events. It’s not a crystal ball, as it may be hard to determine why things will play out. Central banks around the world are playing catch up with inflation. They seem to have failed to recognize the signs that inflation would appear.
Markets fundamentals aren’t as useful as you might expect. The Fed’s upcoming announcement will be interesting to see how things play out.
Investment banks are reporting that the dollar is a crowded trade. This could mean we’re reaching a terminal phase for that trend.
He gives some predictions for copper, crude, and gold. Central banks appear to be behind the curve and reacting instead of being proactive. They need to be more forward-thinking.
Peter shows some long-term trends for the dollar and why we will see a decline out to 2030. The dollar may not have much left to the upside. The causes of this will likely be continued dedollarization and inevitable loss of confidence. Whatever the trigger, we’re going to see a change in the way it’s treated globally.
Gold has been declining since March due to dollar strength. He believes we’re close to a bottom and should begin a new leg up. Silver appears to have bottomed, which is a good sign for gold. Silver normally only outperforms gold in an uptrend.
Peter sees massive potential for platinum and miners in general over the next couple of years.
Lastly, he examines the various indexes and their possible lows. We may be in for a final countertrend rally before we reach the lows.
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Commodity Supercycle
6:50 – Elliott Waves & Inflation
14:12 – Fundamental Drivers
20:25 – Fed Announcements
23:13 – Patterns & News
26:00 – Copper Prices & Crude
34:59 – Dollar Strength & Gold
47:16 – Silver Performance
50:48 – Platinum
52:24 – Trading Approaches
54:10 – Mining Equities
58:30 – Market Indices & Yields
1:07:56 – Interest Rates
1:10:05 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- How the commodity supercycle will play out.
- Outlook for copper, crude, gold, silver and yields.
- Why silver and platinum will outperform.
- Downside targets for equity indexes.
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s, working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.
His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter’s first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and, naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle…
He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties, listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott’s (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled “the Elliott Wave Principle” (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle, but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group.
Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program, and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences. He has published many of his forecasts in various journals over the last twenty years including Currency Confidential, Managed Derivatives, Investment Management, The Ringsider, Market Technician, and quoted by many others, including Metal Bulletin, The Speculator, Focus, Fund Investment, International Herald Tribune, and Reuters. It has brought him in contact with the many diverse fields of finance, delivering presentations for major industry governing bodies and as the principal speaker on behalf of many corporate clients throughout the world.