Sven Henrich: FED Out of Ammo
Tom welcomes a new guest to Palisade, Sven Henrich. Sven is the founder and lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader. Sven outlines his corporate background and what led him to become interested in chart technicals, macro market picture, and trading. He has developed a reputation for being highly critical of central banks.
Sven discusses past market cap to GDP valuations. During the tech bubble, it reached 150%, and at the peak of the housing bubble 135%. Afterward, the ratio collapsed to 75% and 50% respectively. We have entered a new era of permanent central bank intervention with the advent of QE “emergency measures.” Today, market participants understand that central banks will print more whenever the markets begins to correct. In February, the market cap to GDP reached 154%, and now after trillions in additional intervention, we are at the blow-off level of 185%. The highest market valuations in our lifetimes.
He discusses the indicators for XVG stock weighting and the VIX. The VIX may be revealing a risky period through October and November, and it’s possible markets have topped out for now.
Sven says, “There is not a central banker on the planet that will say enough is enough.. none of them are willing to admit the risks they are creating.” There are massive demographic problems today that have no solution.
The dollar has had a breakout, but it appears to be nearing a pivot point. He is currently neutral on gold, awaiting signals from either it or the dollar.
Time Stamp References:
0:58 – Svens background.
3:30 – Svens better half.
4:22 – Marketcap to GDP
9:40 – Dangers to retail investors.
12:50 – XVG index for relative performance.
16:20 – VIX direction from here.
20:00 – Is the Fed out of ammo?
23:50 – Downside risk in the markets.
26:55 – Can they correct wealth inequality.
29:50 – Seasonal Fall risks
32:05 – Outlook for the dollar.
34:20 – Gold expectations.
36:50 – Short-term expectations and politics.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Market cap to GDP and bubble territory.
- Excessive valuations and weightings in tech.
- VIX and XVG indicators.
- Structural issues in the economy and central bank policy.
- Outlook for gold and the dollar.
Sven Henrich is the founder and the lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader. He has been a frequent contributor to CNBC, CNN Business, and MarketWatch and is well known for his diligent technical, directional, and macro analysis of global equity markets. He publishes the Daily Market Brief keeping investors and traders abreast of the latest market critical developments and outlook.