Charles Nenner: Inflation, War and Precious Metals All Set to Accelerate Next Year
Tom welcomes back Charles Nenner. Charles provides independent market research to hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients.
He discusses how commodity cycles typically work and why he believes inflation will pick up again. We’re in an inflationary period that will take about thirty years. We’re now seeing cycles with war, but he predicts there will be more tension and problems by the middle of next year.
They work with price predictions to help evaluate price cycles. Cycles predict mass psychology and the opinion of investors. It’s based on an assumption that things don’t move randomly, but operate on basic laws of nature.
He believes the Fed will back off in their aggressiveness, at least until the inflation cycle starts back up.
The Baltic dry index shows what is occurring in the economy, and it tracks insider activity very well. He’s expecting further declines in equities, and it’s normal to get 10-20% bounces during bear market declines. Don’t get drawn in because the big guys will take advantage.
The weekly cycles for gold and silver need to bottom for the next big move. Soon we’re going to see a bull market, we’re just waiting for confirmation.
There is weakness in the dollar, and the relationship with other markets like gold tends to be complex.
He finds cryptocurrencies to be the easiest market to forecast because it’s all based on sentiment without fundamentals.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Commodity Cycles
2:35 – Analyzing Cycles
4:25 – Crude Oil Cycle
6:45 – Natural Gas
7:40 – Inflation & The Fed
10:08 – Buy Signals
12:58 – Baltic Dry Index
16:48 – Gold/Silver Signals
18:10 – 30 Year Bond Trend
19:01 – Recession + Inflation
20:25 – War & Dollar Outlook
23:15 – Debt & Culture Decline
25:19 – Crypto Analysis
27:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Market cycles and their importance in gaining returns.
- His Outlook for 2023 and why he expects further turmoil.
- Debt and cultural decline of western nations.
In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman’s fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001.
From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor, NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner’s use of proprietary cycle analysis.
Charles graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.