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Craig Hemke: The Economy is Clearly Now in Recession

Tom welcomes Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report back to the show to discuss metals and bank involvement. Hemke talks about how certain entities are able to manipulate prices and make profits, and how the Commitment of Traders Report reveals these positions. He also discusses the possibility of another short squeeze and how this could impact prices. He then explains why the Commitment of Traders Report is not an ideal trading tool, and breaks down his strategy for making decisions regarding the metals market.

Craig then moves on to discuss the economy between the US and Japan, namely the Bank of Japan and the US Dollar. He talks about how the monetary policies of both countries are affecting global markets, and goes on to discuss how the dollar index is being affected. Craig explains why August is always a slow month for trading and speaks on the dangers of servicing the massive US’s debt.

He also talks about the current and future situation with the Federal Reserve, noting that the jobs report in August could be underwhelming and other factors that will affect Jerome Powell’s rate decisions. Craig then suggests that gold prices should start trending upwards in September and rally in October/November. Finally, he encourages patience and believes that the doldrums should end soon.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – COT Reports & Trades
5:44 – Bi-Manipulation
13:45 – Summer Volume Signals
16:53 – DXY Levels & Psychology
20:49 – Dollar/Yen & BOJ
25:52 – Fed, Debt & Deficits
28:39 – Magnitude of Problems
32:30 – Mortgage Rates & Lags
36:50 – 70+ Year Mortgages
38:10 – Silver Supply Deficits
41:00 – Jobs Report & Numbers
47:36 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • Craig explains how large entities manipulate the commodities market.
  • His strategy of identifying large speculators positions can help predict price rallies.
  • He suggests that gold prices will rally in October and November due to current positioning and COT reports.

Guest Links:

Craig Hemke, aka “Turd Ferguson,” was a licensed securities “professional” for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as “financial services,” he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal “markets.”

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