Danielle DiMartino Booth: Data Revision Exposes Fragile State of the Economy
Tom welcomes Danielle Booth back to the show to once again discuss the Fed and the state of the economy. Danielle explains why Powell needs to maintain “illusion or narrative” of higher interest rates for longer. This is crucial for households, commercial real estate developers, and corporations who have taken out loans and mortgages at lower rates. While a potential decrease of up to 100 basis points (5% to 4%) is possible by January, it is unlikely. Currently, rates are much higher and will have an impact on entities that are cashflow constrained.
Danielle also discusses the various indicators to gauge the state of the economy, such as layoffs, disposable personal income, and stimulus checks. She noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has two surveys, one of which creates the unemployment rate and the other creates non-farm payrolls. It is important to consider both surveys to accurately assess the economy.
Danielle also talks about the impact of the pandemic on the economy, with job losses, bankruptcies, and a potential recession looming. She mentioned the challenges faced by the repossession industry due to a lack of employees, and the pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell to prevent a market crash.
Lastly, she also advised keeping an eye on bank reserves and understanding how companies are preparing for the end of the year with cost-cutting and potential layoffs. Overall, the economy is facing a potential stagflation as households struggle to keep up with inflation and debt obligations.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Higher For Longer
2:34 – Debt Loads & Cash Flow
5:00 – Recession Indications
6:50 – Non-Farm Payroll
12:03 – Wage Price Spiral?
13:34 – Inflation Outlook
15:48 – Freight Economic Costs
17:25 – Sub-Prime Auto Loans
20:20 – Powell & Election Year
23:10 – Liquidity + Correction
25:46 – Gov’t Spending & Labor
28:14 – End Of Year Outlook
29:44 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why rates are having a major impact on households, commercial real estate developers, and corporations who have taken out mortgages and loans.
- Why it’s important to consider both jobless claims and payroll reports.
- Examine your portfolios and have cash on hand to watch what comes to pass for the end of the year.
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.