David Hunter: I’m Calling for $1500+ Gold and $26 Silver
David is sticking to his target of $1550-$1600 for gold, which he predicts will be reached around Labor Day. For silver, he feels that $26 is still a definite possibility. He says, “When people become more interested in gold silver will head higher. Silver usually underperforms on the downward moves in gold and outperforms when gold rallies.”
David discusses why investors fail to comprehend the discounting nature of markets. The media will focus on some narrative and keep repeating it until it becomes the popular one. People need to understand that just because something is popular doesn’t mean that is the direction the market will take. That sentiment may already be priced into the market, and often that is a good time to entertain a contrary viewpoint.
His methodology looks at the longer cycles, and his analysis indicates that oil has peaked for this cycle and will probably move lower. Markets are headed for a repeat of the 2008-2009 unwind and appears to be coming next year. That bust will be a severe recession, and as a result, the global demand for oil will fall to perhaps as low as ten dollars. During this period there will be an across the board collapse in commodities.
He discusses his favorite books that led him to be a contrarian and why he finds it essential to understand the psychology of markets. Markets are functions of crowd psychology, and he explains why many investors suffer in stock markets.
TimeStamp References:
0:40 – Outlook for gold and silver.
2:50 – Confirmation bias and mistakes investors make.
5:00 – Understanding market sentiment.
6:30 – Contrarian view on oil markets
11:00 – Books that shaped Davids viewpoints.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
• He continues to predict $1550+ for gold and $26 for silver this year.
• A large recession is due by next year.
• That recession will drive down oil and commodities.
• His favorite books and why he is a contrarian.
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 18 years as a sell-side strategist with strong expertise in macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd. Accomplished stock picker and value-oriented portfolio manager.