David Kranzler: Poking Bears And Black Swans
Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. They discuss the media interview with Vladimir Putin, the contemporary stock market, economic uncertainties, and potential financial reforms. Kranzler appreciates the Carlson interview as a rare example of genuine journalism that reveals Putin’s motives and the U.S.’ provocative interventions in stark contrast to the narratives of mainstream media. Speaking as an investor, Kranzler analyses the dominance of a few companies in the S&P, suggesting it to be an indicator of a stock market bubble. He posits that the Federal Reserve may be trying to avert a banking crisis by reinflating the bubble, but warns this could lead to inflation and social disparity.
Recognizing vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate sector, Dave anticipates a black swan event caused by the overwhelming debt of $117 billion this year and over $1.5 trillion by 2025. The implications of escalating U.S federal debt are also discussed, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to print more money if a significant foreign financier withdraws. They examine the deceptive representations in government economic reports and the prevailing economic hardships ignored by these reports. Despite partisan politics obstructing genuine reform, they urge for term limits and campaign finance reform, while recognizing the improbability of such changes without a societal reset.
Dave stresses the importance of rigorous analysis rather than relying on company reports alone when investing, suggesting that companies like Snap and Tesla are overvalued. He predicts that the market may eventually favor companies producing essential raw materials, following a market crash. They comment on the current investment culture, dictated by momentum and technological influence, and advocate for traditional metrics and investing standards. Investments in well-run gold and silver companies are presented as a prime example of value stocks.
Discussing market competitiveness, they denote the need for companies to maintain their share price, using Fortuna Silver as an example. Despite a temporary setback, its future prospects appear promising due to new discoveries and share buyouts. Despite the uncertainty and price manipulation in the precious metals sector, they remain optimistic of a future bull cycle, driven by factors such as high inflation, political instability, and geopolitical risks. International demand also provides a safety net for gold prices.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Putin/Tucker Interview
4:40 – Bias & Poking The Bear
11:00 – S&P500 & Tech Bubbles
15:05 – Perception & Risk
20:54 – Looming Black Swans
24:40 – Federal Debt Refinancing
29:28 – GDP “Growth”, CPI & Reality
32:47 – The Silent Recession
36:42 – Unfixable Problems
41:00 – Pain Before Reset
42:50 – Company Valuations
49:26 – Miners & Valuations
55:07 – Sentiment & Apathy
58:08 – Metal Fundamentals
1:03:52 – Market Behavior & Risk
1:07:54 – Concluding Thoughts
1:12:52 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Kranzler identifies a stock market bubble, warns of potential inflation and social disparity instigated by Federal Reserve actions.
- Discussions forecast a ‘black swan event’ in the commercial real estate sector and potential money printing due to increasing U.S. federal debt.
- Kranzler advocates for rigorous, unbiased investment analysis and prefers value stocks in gold and silver companies despite market uncertainties.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.