David Murrin: Doomsday Bubble Popping Means Metals Will Soar
Tom welcomes David Murrin to the show. David discusses his five model of empire and how he was able to predict that Russia would invade Ukraine. Western governments have pushed all the adaptive people. The United States is now in the fifth stage of decline. We live in a watershed time of transition of power and we’re in a Kondratieff winter. Nation-states fight over resources and these are the main drivers of past wars.
Russia tried to return to the collective western fold but has been largely rejected.
David discusses the cycles that drove the cold war and the inflation during the 70s. Excessive money printing and a reduction in productivity are creating this decline. Structures are weakening in the West and our leadership is lacking. A series of disastrous Presidents have only exacerbated the problems. This decade is going to see a huge shift in commodity markets.
Putin is not a mad man. Anyone that believes this is failing to understand him. There is nothing illogical about the man. Putin doesn’t play poker he follows thru on his statements.
Huge gas resources were found in Ukraine in 2012. This is a reason why the West became directly involved in the country. This energy competition is not acceptable to Putin and he already seized significant gas resources off the coast of Crimea.
Russia’s weapon systems are designed to completely thwart the West’s nuclear defenses. Putin has very carefully calculated his war to completely collapse Ukraine’s will to fight. His use of nuclear leverage completely threatens other European nations.
Once Ukraine falls it’s highly likely that Taiwan and South Korea will suffer the same fate.
Should Putin fail we could see a pro-western government in Russia. Should that happen China would lose its source of resources. China’s nuclear deterrent is limited but when allied to Russia it’s much stronger. The longer we wait the stronger the bonds will become between China and Russia. Sanctions aren’t going to hurt Russia as the West will experience a big energy shock.
He believes in the importance of reducing CO2, adopting green energy, and most importantly making use of nuclear and thorium power solutions.
We’re now in the bubble of all bubbles and entering decline. Bubbles have created the illusion of successful markets and those in charge can’t see the magnitude of what is coming.
The dollar will lose another 30 percent in purchasing power as a result of hegemonic power decline. This is similar to what Britain experienced around 1914.
Precious metals will be the way to hedge against the coming market risks. This combined with mining stocks has enormous potential to outperform this inflationary cycle.
Lastly, he discusses potential price targets for precious metals and why they will likely be astounding. There just isn’t enough metal to go around and just imagine what happens when inflation is two or three times higher than today.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:04 – Predicting Invasion
16:30 – NATO and Conflict?
23:57 – Europe and Energy
25:48 – China & Russia
29:04 – Russia & Commodities
31:16 – Global Energy Shocks
35:35 – Doomsday Bubble
38:24 – Dollar Outcome
40:44 – West Outlook
45:33 – Hedging The Risks
49:15 – Sector Rotation?
50:35 – Crypto Market Thoughts
52:05 – Metal Price Targets
53:35 – Gold Standard & Putin
58:49 – China Gold Reserves
59:38 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Putin’s strategy for breaking NATO the Wests problems of dealing with nuclear blackmail.
- Why the West is in decline and his thoughts on the dollar.
- Importance of nuclear and reducing carbon.
- Hedging the coming inflationary risks with precious metals and mining equities.
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.