David Murrin: Part 2 – Golds Time to Shine is Just Coming Into View
This episode is broken into two parts. This is part two.
David continues the conversation discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. He believes all the metals are set to take off along with oil.
David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people’s wealth.
David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause.
0:00 – Intro
0:24 – Strategic Commodities
3:49 – China & Supply Chains
7:14 – Real Wealth Collapse
9:05 – Dollar & Devaluation
11:50 – Inflation Path & Rates
14:37 – Gold the Anti-Entropic
19:04 – Metals & Mining Stocks
23:02 – Geopolitical Themes
29:40 – Change & Perspective
37:03 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From this Episode
- Commodities such as metals, oil, and other essential resources are set to take off in 2021 and governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to protect their economies.
- Central banks are likely to raise interest rates to fight inflation, which could have a crushing effect on markets and people’s wealth.
- Geopolitical themes to watch for in 2021 include the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, inflation, and potential preemptive strikes. Additionally, the human desire to fight can bring people together for a common cause.
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.