Francis Hunt: The Dollar System is in its Death Throes
Tom welcomes Francis Hunt, Founder of “The Market Sniper” back to the show.
Francis explains how markets have entirely shifted from the goldilocks globalization period under Greenspan. During that time America and much of the west outsourced their manufacturing to China. This was a deflationary force but now we are entering a time of deglobalization. This is creating the opposite effect as inflation and costs of goods increase along with interest rates.
The United States is defending its currency by letting it skyrocket while contracting the consumer economy at home. This is causing people around the world to hold onto dollars while less spending by U.S. consumers creates a dollar shortage overseas. Powell is asserting U.S. dollar dominance to discourage alternative currency systems.
Francis’s term ‘hyperstagflation’ means killing the U.S. consumer to create a dollar shortage globally. The dollar is needed by many nations to repay dollar-denominated debts. Inflation is being exported toward Europe and the East. Equity market valuations remain overpriced historically even with the corrections in recent weeks. Expect the decline in equities to continue for some time.
Debt instruments are contracting and bonds are performing horribly. We had a blow-off top in bond valuations in March 2020 which marked a fundamental shift. 2020 was a seminal event for many markets.
He believes a super spike in dollar strength is coming which will be hard for gold. When this trend eventually reverses gold will rally.
Those claiming a future melt-up in equities appear to have missed the rally since March of 2020. Most indexes have rallied more than 100 percent in just 20 months. Investors who are waiting for a ‘blow-off’ top have missed the boat and are in dangerous waters. The time when the Fed finally reverses course will be longer than investors are anticipating.
He cautions that investors should be in cash until the markets have capitulated and sentiment has completely collapsed. Be careful as this correction will be deeper than many expect. Don’t trade until the stimulus trade is back.
Gold is doing great when measured against all other currencies and inevitably it will do well against the dollar. Europeans are doing just fine with holding gold right now.
Politicians are introducing extreme scenarios for extreme control and these dystopian cycles are only destined to worsen.
People are being psychologically attacked and the need to diversify geographically has never been greater. Become as self-reliant as possible.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Hyperstagflation
15:45 – Dollar Charts
20:47 – Debt System Shift
26:27 – Bretton Woods 2
29:42 – HVF & Fear Trade
35:30 – No Market Melt-up?
38:30 – Fed Reverse?
43:20 – Oil Overview
50:49 – Gold & Silver
55:45 – Bitcoin Downside
1:00:37 – Miner Outlook
1:08:02 – Diversifying Globally
1:16:40 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- His thesis on the dollar and equity markets.
- Why waiting for a ‘melt-up’ is dangerous.
- Dollars are the safe haven right now and be wary of equities.
- The next Powell pivot may take longer than most expect.
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.