Jeffrey Christian: 2024-25 Will Bring Recession, Unrest, Along With Higher Precious Metals Prices
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics speaks with Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, about various topics including silver usage in warfare, the role of gold as a “chameleon trade,” and the economic outlook for gold investment. Jeff Christian estimates that globally, between 10-20 million ounces of silver are used each year for warfare-related purposes such as missiles and electronics.
Jeff describes the various investment uses for gold, including inflation hedge, currency hedge, portfolio diversifier, commodity, safe haven, and as a form of savings. These factors should be taken into account when considering gold as an investment.
Jeff discusses the current economic outlook and the various contentious views on gold investment. Some economists argue that there won’t be another recession and that inflation is low enough.However, others believe that problems will emerge in the future, including increased recession, financial market instability, and political instability. Jeff notes that inflation is expected to remain in a range of 3-4.5% for the next year or two, and food inflation remains a major concern.
He also addresses misconceptions about government statistics, such as the CPI and PPI, and emphasizes the adjustments made are to provide accurate economic measurements. Jeff mentions the increasing transparency of central banks and their purchases of gold to offset the collapse of private sector demand in certain countries. He clarifies that the US Treasury has not been “dumping” the US dollar but has sold treasuries due to changing interest rates.
In terms of investment demand for gold and silver, Jeff notes that investors have the flexibility to buy or sell depending on current prices, creating a dynamic market. He mentions the increasing demand for silver due to its industrial applications and the changing dynamics within the auto industry.
Jeff concludes by discussing the CPM Group’s predictions for gold and silver prices, expecting them to rise in the coming year. As part of their services, CPM Group offers free resources and reports for clients and provides market alerts on long-term economic outlooks, debt, deficit, and gold.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Military Silver Usage
5:54 – Gold’s Various Roles
11:45 – Gold Market Asymmetry
12:56 – Short Term PM Headwinds?
16:57 – Inflation From Here
20:38 – Energy & Oil Reserves
22:32 – Questioning Biases
28:27 – Central Bank Buying
34:00 – China & Treasuries
36:56 – Misleading Datapoints
40:20 – Silver Demand Roles
46:19 – Tech. & Auto Industry
50:50 – Platinum & Palladium
51:38 – Debt Distractions
54:18 – Tumultuous Election?
55:47 – Gold Price Predictions
58:55 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Jeff estimates that 10-20 million ounces of silver are used globally for defense each year, mostly in the US.
- Gold investment demand is driven by six main factors that traders should consider.
- CPM Group offers market alerts and other free resources to clients to help them make informed investment decisions in gold and silver.
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.