Jordan Roy-Byrne: Gold and Silver Markets Unsettled
Jordan discusses the gold market, he expects some further losses in the stocks, as they will retest their December lows. Gold has support at $1220 and $1150, the larger issue is that this bull market won’t begin in earnest until the stock markets peak and the economy rolls over. We need to watch for weaker than expected economic data. He thinks 2018 will be a better year than 2017, the next bottom might be this fall.
If gold continues to fall than stocks will be hit, however it looks like miners currently have it priced in. There may be a twenty percent downside in the juniors. If the stock market goes into blow-off territory, that would be more bearish for gold than for gold stocks. In that scenario gold stocks could hold up really well.
He sees lower prices for silver, it’s disheartening because it has reached $18.50 several times, looking at the price action he sees a risk that it will test $16. Based on three previous silver bear markets, it should begin rising aggressively next year, and move above resistance at $21 towards $26.
The key support target for gold is around $1200, and $1150 on the monthly charts. It’s good that it has rallied up to $1297. It’s being held up a bit by geopolitical factors, market fundamentals have peaked in terms of real rates and inflation and commodity prices as a whole have leveled off or are declining. He thinks the Fed will likely hike rates and that it’s currently priced in.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
• Thinks Gold will be a weak performer in 2017 but do well in 2018.
• Silver may test $16.00 and gold may move towards $1150-$1200.
• Fed may raise rates several times this year.
• Gold may bottom this fall near last December’s lows.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold.com, a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.