Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim: Gold and Silver – Technical Break Outs just Starting
Tom welcomes back the double-charting dynamic duo partnership edition of Palisades. The Market Weather Forecaster Kevin Wadsworth and Proprietary Capital Manager Patrick Karim have now teamed up at NorthStarBadCharts.com to bring you their ‘baddest’ charts and market weather forecasts.
Kevin gives us his thoughts on the dollar’s trend and why he thinks it will continue downwards. He expects it to the bottom during the middle of this decade, and the stochastic indicator should follow past patterns. Patrick gives us some shorter-term targets for the dollar and when and where it might turn around or, more likely, head lower.
Patrick discusses how the dollar breaks down when one factors inflation. He expects a further fifty percent decline in purchasing power over the coming years.
Kevin outlines the 30-year bond yields and the ever-increasing national debt. We’re in some sort of final death and debt spiral. Unlike in the past, we can’t raise rates so how this plays out is anyone’s guess.
Patrick discusses how real rates compare with gold and how an end-game scenario may play out. He doesn’t feel that equities can outperform gold for much longer.
Patrick looks at the charts for silver and how patterns repeat when contrasted with the Dow. We have a clear cup and handle on the long-term chart for silver. Silver continues to fill out the handle pattern and seemingly has a lot of potential upside.
Kevin examines what the future of copper may hold considering future growth in electrification. The current surge in commodity prices may be short-lived, but the long-term trend seems more evident. The price of copper may continue higher for a while longer and then pull back.
Kevin explains how spot uranium is near the bottom of a key channel and is likely to head higher in another leg up. The chart for Energy Fuels shows a possible base on the stochastic indicator and the possibility of a breakout coming and a potential $13 target.
Kevin wants to see Bitcoin confirm the bull market, and he expects to see a significant move higher before this bull market is over. Ethereum is clearly very bullish on the chart.
They provide us with their plans for the new website and how it’s helping to keep them organized with the numerous chart requests. They are posting upwards of 200 charts a month on their site, which they offer a very reasonable fee.
They expect some crazy moves to come, and Kevin suggests caution on the markets later this summer. They both agree, focus on the charts, and follow the evidence where it leads.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introductions
0:45 – Dollar Do(o)med
6:54 – Inflation Dollar Chart
9:37 – Real Yields & Gold
16:16 – Gold vs. US Equities
18:40 – Historic Gold Charts
21:53 – Silver Vs. Dow
24:32 – Gold Cycles
27:55 – Silver Cup & Handle
33:43 – Silver Log Chart
40:14 – Copper Update
42:43 – Uranium
45:22 – Energy Fuels
47:20 – Ethereum Chart
52:32 – Bitcoin Cycle
53:37 – New Chart Website
57:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Dollar decline and inflation charts.
- Yields, Bonds and the National Debt.
- Expectations for Gold and Silver
- Commodities and Crypto.
Patrick Karim Guest Links:
New Site: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress and maintaining a successful career.
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes ‘The Fourth Turning’, which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it’s likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on tuning out all the noise and presenting clear and uncluttered charts while gathering all of the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it.