Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim: The Fiat Endgame, $6,000 Gold and $180 Silver
Tom brings us a double-charting dynamic duo edition of Palisades. The Market Weather Forecaster Kevin Wadsworth and Proprietary Capital Manager Patrick Karim bring us the latest low down on the metals markets.
Kevin starts us off by looking at the gold chart and how the bull market has progressed. At the moment, there is a concern if the arc breaks, we could pull back for longer. It’s not unusual in an ongoing bull market to have a pullback to the fifty-day moving average.
Patrick points out that gold never closes below the 18 months moving average during a bull market. Further money printing and inflation are almost certainly in the cards as the Fed will likely continue to support the general equities markets.
Patrick provides a monthly comparison between gold and silver charts. The value of gold is relatively constant, but the value of the currencies is what fluctuates. They give some possible gold and silver targets, and Kevin believes this silver market will end with a parabolic melt-up.
Kevin discusses his real yields chart and how we have been below zero yields, and it shows why gold and silver are putting in a bottom. Then we look at the US dollar and how it has a 15-year cycle composed of five three-year cycles. It looks like we will move higher for a short period before descending again.
Kevin shows that copper has broken out as we’ve overcome resistance levels, and overall, the fundamentals look very good for copper miners. The arc in copper indicates that we are building for a new long-term pattern at higher levels. Patrick also feels that copper is still not close to topping out.
Uranium is at the bottom of a trend pattern, and if it falls through its support, we could see a further move down in uranium, but Kevin expects the trendline to hold. He fully expects the price to break to the upside.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:18 – Gold Chart & Pullback
7:00 – Quarterly Gold Chart
10:48 – Gold and Silver
17:00 – Silver’s No Quarter
24:33 – Real Yields
36:36 – US Dollar Cycle
41:25 – Copper Chart
51:08 – Uranium Chart
1:04:30 – Charting Resources
1:07:00 – Wrap Up
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, key for maintaining a successful career.
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes ‘The Fourth Turning’, which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it’s likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on ‘tuning out’ of all the ‘noise’ and presenting clear and uncluttered charts, and gathering all of the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, “I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it.”