Kevin Wadsworth: Forget Gold, Buy Silver
Tom welcomes back market weather forecaster and technical analyst wizard Kevin Wadsworth.
Kevin discusses the technical patterns and how they usually tell you where things are heading. Sometimes the evidence is very clear, and other times it’s quite mixed. He recommends gathering all the technical evidence and look closely for the support and resistance lines. Eventually, the price will test and overcome those levels. He discusses momentum indicators, various natural cycles, and the signals they provide.
He outlines what he expects will happen in bitcoin over the coming months. Gold is showing resistance, and a test of the $1800 level seems possible. Silver has been going sideways recently and has support at three price levels and shows an expanding wedge pattern. A $21 level test remains a possibility, but $50 to $60 seems entirely plausible next year. Silver has been performing better than gold recently, and the gold-silver ratio appears to be reaching a decision point.
The dollar index is pushing back up, but a clear trading pattern has shown the potential for either a new downward trend or a breakout to the upside. It appears we are in a bear market in the dollar, and it seems likely that we will bounce off the trend and head lower.
Kevin reviews the charts for Hecla Mining and Energy Fuels. Both are showing bullish signs with similar patterns appearing across many of the miners. Lastly, he discusses the chart for copper, the chart patterns, and why he is bullish.
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Talking Points From This Episode
- Technical patterns, momentum, and price direction.
- Outlook for bitcoin, gold, and silver.
- Dollar index at the top of a bearish trend.
- Bullish signals with many miners.
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events that are influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes ‘The Fourth Turning’, which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it’s likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on ‘tuning out’ of all the ‘noise’ and presenting clear and uncluttered charts and gathering all of the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, “I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it.”