Kevin Wadsworth & Patrick Karim: Breakouts on the Charts Leading to Larger Moves for Gold and Silver
Tom welcomes back the dynamic charting duo Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth. They discuss how we are starting to see a potential breakout for gold as it touches multiple points while building out a new trend line. On the monthly chart, we have nearly had a confirmed breakout. If this month closes around the current level, it will confirm a monthly breakout. We need to see capital flows move into gold, which you can spot with ratios like gold to the SPX. It doesn’t take much capital rotation for gold to breakout. The gold charts display evidence of being far away from their natural position and there is a build up of latent investment energy that could easily be explosive.
Patrick explains how Ichimoku clouds work in technical analysis by measuring market strength over time. Markets can break through when clouds are narrow, and you should treat these, along with other indicators like moving averages. Many of their charts point to a high point in metals markets towards the end of the 2020s.
It is important to consistently question your analysis as new information arrives and compare past bull markets to see where things may head in the coming years. They provide a demo live analysis for determining the strength and entry point for a market. Initial breakouts are often not the move you are waiting for, as markets take time to establish a base and wash out the bag holders.
They analyze the Dollar Index Milkshake theory to measure the potential weight of evidence. Gold tracks purchasing power more than the dollar index. Much dollar demand comes from overseas, and this may be gradually changing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Golds Breakout?
6:12 – Gold/SPX & ASA
13:00 – Profit Levels
15:13 – Ichimoku Clouds
19:22 – Historic Analysis
25:50 – Breakout Ratings
44:00 – Thesis & Plans
48:24 – DXY Milkshake Theory
58:05 – Dollar Demand Surge?
1:02:55 – Miner Paradigm
1:10:27 – Probabilities
1:14:26 – Uranium ETF Chart
1:22:00 – Crypto Thoughts
1:23:21 – Wrap Up
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes ‘The Fourth Turning’, which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it’s likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on tuning out all the noise and presenting clear and uncluttered charts while gathering all the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias, but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it.
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.