Lawrence Lepard: Gold Holding Strong Because It Knows What’s Coming
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates to the show.
Lawrence expresses skepticism towards the reported 4.9% annualized GDP growth in the US, believing it to be falsely inflated due to the exclusion of essential goods like gasoline and food. He also discusses the government’s history of manipulating inflation and employment reports, urging investors to take all government information with a grain of salt and only consider what is true when making investment decisions.
Lepard touches upon the current state of the media and the role of the internet in disintermediating large organizations like CNN and Fox News. They agree that the internet allows for more direct access to truth, but caution against the abundance of “noise” on the web.
The conversation shifts to the financial markets, with Lepard stating that they are currently broken. He points to the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank as evidence, and believes that the government’s response of printing more money is only hiding the truth. He predicts that inflation will be a major problem in the next 10 years and advises investors to consider this dynamic when making investment decisions.
Lepard discusses the possibility of a sovereign currency crisis in the US, similar to those seen in third world countries. They point to the high interest expense of one trillion dollars a year due to the deficit, and estimate that this will only increase in the next few years. They also discuss the fragility of the world’s economy, bank losses, and the potential consequences of excessive borrowing.
The conversation then turns to the role of gold in protecting against inflation and the current divergence between gold mining stocks and the price of gold. Lepard predicts that gold will rise to $3000 in the next five years and that silver will follow suit. He also discusses the potential for silver to see a 100% increase in value in the next 18 months.
Lepard concludes the interview by sharing his dislike for central banks and discussing his website and fund, which manages investments in gold mining stocks. He notes that while his slots are currently open, they may fill up quickly when the bull market returns.
Time Stamp Reference
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – GDP Statistics & Truth
7:04 – Expectations & Markets
13:52 – Labor & Inflation
16:22 – Treasury Demand & Dollars
22:54 – Bank Losses & Concerns
31:16 – Powell & Pivots
36:45 – Gold & The Endpoint
38:07 – Golds Performance
41:27 – Debt & Math Problems
44:26 – Central Banks & Gold
49:28 – Mining Equities
54:25 – Silver & Probabilities
59:06 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- He is skeptical of the recently reported 4.9% annualized GDP growth in the US, believing it to be falsely inflated and that high government debt could lead to a currency crisis.
- According to Lawrence, investment communities and hedge funds have yet to enter the gold market, with stocks in a downwave and the price of gold breaking its 1365 ceiling.
- Larry suggests investors should transition to commodities such as gold, silver, copper, oil and lithium to protect themselves against inflation and circumstances of economic downturn.
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.