Lawrence Lepard: Inflation Starting to Rear its Ugly Head
Tom welcomes Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates back to the show. Lawrence argues that the system has failed due to unsound money, and an immediate restructuring would be preferable. The alternative may be dragging the process out for the next twenty years.
He explains the differences between today and 2008 and why we haven’t seen much increase in money velocity. Bonds today are poorly bid, and the treasury has moved to the short end of the bond market. The monetary plumbing convolutes most investor’s understanding, but it all comes down to printing money. There is too much debt, and further debt no longer has any effect on the economy. The choice is to default or restructure or inflate your way out. Politically, they will most likely choose to inflate these problems away.
Lawrence discusses how Germany successfully restructured its economy before WWII, although the direction they went politically afterward was unfortunate. He believes unrest will drive political change, and that will force real solutions. He thinks we’re approaching a tipping point with the population where sound money becomes a self-sustaining system of adoption.
Lawrence likes bitcoin but has some concerns about its volatility.
He discusses mining stocks, their risks, and the different reasons why they can outperform.
Time Stamp References
0:00 – Intro
0:31 – Election & Civil Unrest
10:28 – Crisis Today vs. 2008
14:14 – Fixing a Broken System
16:08 – Weimar Germany
22:52 – FED & Judy Shelton
26:11 – Gold & Bitcoin
30:23 – PM Bubble Coming?
33:42 – Evaluating Opportunities
42:00 – Jurisdictions & Risks
45:48 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The need to return to sound money.
- Expect massive stimulus.
- Inflation seems politically inevitable.
- Mining stocks and jurisdictions.
Book Recommendations – Weimar Germany:
The Great Inflation by William Guttmann and Patricia Meehan
The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047 by Lionel Shriver
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.