Lawrence Lepard: The Everything Bubble is Fragile and Faltering
Tom welcomes Lawrence Lepard back to discuss the markets, gold, and the fragile state of the economy.
Lawrence discusses the markets and how they are slowing. We may be near a market top. Last year we had explosive growth in GDP but that has waned in recent months. We printed trillions to get us through the Covid period and now benefits are running out. The economy is starting to choke and the key question is will they do further stimulus or will the markets be allowed to roll over.
The debt-ceiling debate is just a pretense to show their ‘responsible’. The big elephant is inflation which is breaking out everywhere. Housing markets are moving higher and very few assets are behaving normally. In the past couple of years, we’ve printed forty percent of the money in existence. Even the Democrats are reconsidering spending but if they don’t spend markets will cool and pull back. In the end, they will likely have no choice but to print more and send out stimulus checks.
The Fed is very good at playing the taper game and they’re not stupid. They will try like hell to keep things going while pretending to be responsible. There is a good chance they will have to stop the taper to keep the markets happy. The reality is you can’t taper a Ponzi scheme.
No growth and higher prices is the definition of stagflation. Back in the 70s prices kept rising repeatedly. Gold and oil were the outperformers for ten years while bonds were killed and stocks went nowhere. Today’s markets feel similar.
He believes the producers are the place to be in mining stocks. They are not sexy but they have a good revenue stream and are currently overlooked.
He discusses the benefits of bitcoin and why like gold it represents a great sound money bet. Inflation will drive the trade out of fiat assets and into alternatives. This is the end game for fiat.
Time Stamp References
0:00 – Introduction
0:31 – Fragile Markets
4:21 – Debt Ceiling Debate
9:13 – Fed Taper Bluff?
14:22 – Stimulus & Inflation
15:54 – Kick for Gold?
21:14 – Housing Prices
25:45 – Watch for Signposts
30:17 – Mining Company Buckets
37:37 – Bitcoin as a hedge?
46:43 – China & Bitcoin?
52:19 – Gold, Bitcoin & Energy
54:30 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Inflation and market fragility.
- Debt-ceiling debate and political will.
- Fed’s taper plans and Powell to be replaced.
- The housing market, bubbles, and mitigating risks.
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.